The falls that during the last two weeks are being imposed in the European banking sector are another incentive that invites us to look for a buying window among the main Spanish banks in search of a bullish scenario for 2022 that will probably be double digits.
In this sense, it should be noted that at the beginning of last October the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks (SX7R), which is made up of the 40 most important banks in the euro area according to the ICB (Industry Classification Benchmark) market standard, managed to beat the level where it traded before covid crash. The scope and surpassing of this objective, which for months I managed for the European banking sector, allows to favor with more force a bullish scenario towards following objectives that I manage in the highs that the banking sector marked in 2015 and 2018, whose scope I see quite a lot likely by 2022.
Up to the highs that the (SX7R) marked in 2018 at 463 points, there is still a margin of rise of around 20% and until the highs of 2015 it would be 28%. This revaluation potential for 2022 is more attractive and greater than what we had just two weeks ago and all this thanks to the correction of around 6% that has taken place from the highs set by the sector at the beginning of November.
This correction or consolidation that we are seeing has the appearance of being one more within the upward trend that was born at the lows set by the SX7R banking sector at the end of September last year. Specifically, it would be the fifth. Previously we could see two corrections of the order of 12% and two consolidations of 6/7%. You can see how the current decline fits with what would be a new consolidation, which whenever they take place I never tire of repeating that it is an unbeatable opportunity to buy and thus get on the impeccable uptrend that defines the banking sector. Considering what has been said, it must be borne in mind that in the worst case scenario the SX7R could fall another 6%, to the 355/360 point area, and if that happens we should not be scared and see it as an opportunity to increase positions in banking.
Bearing in mind that the objective to be sought for the next few months is 20 and 28% and the maximum risk of a fall that a priori management is an additional 6%, we are going to identify the purchase levels and objectives to be sought between Spanish banks.
In the case of Santander It must be borne in mind that it is a matter of time before it goes to look for the highs of 2020 and the area where it traded before covid crash at 3.80 euros. So far there is still a 20% upward journey. If we look for more ambitious goals, such as the highs reached in 2018, we can see that they are at 5.20 euros. We are talking about a potential of 70%. The recommendation is to buy. In the worst case scenario, I estimate to see a drop in Santander to the area of 2.70 / 2.84 euros, the scope of which would serve to double positions.
The correction suffered by the BBVA During the last weeks, which has taken the bank from 6.30 to 5.30 euros, which represents a fall of 16%, I see it as an unbeatable opportunity to buy in search of BBVA going to the highs of 2010 and 2015 in the area of 7.40 euros, which is 37% apart. In the worst case, I estimate a drop in BBVA to 4.70 / 4.80 euros.
CaixaBank It is in an optimal buying zone after reaching the minimum that it marked in July in the area of 2.35 euros in the last fall, and it would be a gift if the correction reached the area of 2.20 euros. From 2.20 / 2.35 euros I would seek targets at 3.80-4 euros. In the worst case, I estimate a correction towards 2.20 / 2.37 euros, which are its historical highs for the year 2018.
It is a matter of time before the price of Bankinter go to the historic highs that marked the year 2018 in the area of 6 euros. So far there is a margin of rise of 30%. The fall we have seen in recent weeks has brought Bankinter to the 4.50 euro area, which was the support that indicated to them in the last analysis that they had to wait before considering buying the bank. If weeks ago Bankinter was more a hold than a buy, now the recommendation has changed. It can be bought especially if it is assumed that in the worst case it could fall to 4.05 euros before heading to 6 euros.
The objective to be sought for the next few months in the Sabadell is in the 1 euro zone, which is where it traded before the covid crash. Looking for this objective, it does not seem wrong to me to buy if it corrects to the area of 0.55 / 0.5750 euros.
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