Data analysis quantifies the Suárez effect on Atlético

It is the Atlético with the biggest punch in a long time. In Eibar it was palpable. At times Simeone's team was not comfortable, imprecise due to the always high pressure from Mendilibar. He shook it off at times, managed to tame the local nerve, but above all he found that he took advantage of his opportunities to the millimeter. There is a fact that shows the rojiblanca punch, above any of the LaLiga teams. Atlético is the team with the greatest difference in the entire championship between the actual points and the expected points (xP). This data analysis metric establishes the result of a match based on the quality of the chances generated and the probability they had of being a goal.

So, It is observed through the website specialized in football Big Data Understat, that Atlético shows the largest difference in the entire league between the 44 real points it has and the 31.78 it should have. The data explains that Atlético has more points than it should based on the analysis of its matches and is based on how accurate it is in the auction, better than what could be expected due to the situations it has had, and, obviously , for a remarkable defensive power.

In the case of Atlético, limping other times in this section, the punch it is having is valued. And the copichichi of the League collaborates with this. The Suarez effect has its quantification also in data analysis. The Uruguayan has 11 goals, better than what could be expected based on the situation of his shots (xG). His xG in the league is 7.58. The charrúa is very precise. In Ipurúa it was a clear example. A goal was invented almost out of nowhere, taking advantage of the error of the rear and, later, he did not forgive from the penalty spot. Suarez is this season at 0.98 goals every ninety minutes. It is the best scoring average for the Uruguayan since the 2015-2016 season, when LaLiga closed with 40 goals, signing 1.14 every ninety minutes. In his next four seasons with Barcelona he finished with 0.88 goals per ninety minutes at 16-17; 0.78, at 17-18; 0.67, in 18-19 and 0.72 in the past, according to data from the provider Statsbomb. Now it is at that already indicated 0.98 every ninety minutes. Insurance for the leader.

Barcelona misses that hit from the Uruguayan.

He is the best Suarez in four years. Koeman may well remember, who recently complained about the scoring chances his team squanders. Atlético, in general terms, has 33 goals in the League, 1.94 per game. Meanwhile, the data says that he should have 26.12 goals (xG) depending on his situations to score. Atlético scores more than what is expected. A Barcelona without Suárez lives an opposite reality. To begin with, it is a team with a negative relationship between the actual and expected points (xP). Add 34 points and your xP is 36.10. You should have more points. Looking at the offensive numbers, it is observed that Barcelona accumulates 37 goals in the League (2.06 per game), while its xG is 41.18. It was not the league, but the lack of aim explains why Barcelona had to play another extra time in the Cup. Regarding the difference between real and expected points of Atlético, you cannot turn your back on their amazing performance in defense. Of Oblak and his defenders. Simeone's team has conceded seven goals against (0.41 per game), while they should have conceded 13.77 (xGA).