On January 31 – if nothing changes – there will be the agreed exit of the European Union by the United Kingdom, a resounding failure of the community project that, despite everything, is finally produced with some feeling of relief after the fear that generated the hard Brexit with which the government of Boris Jonhson threatened. The fear of the sudden break caused all the alarms to go off, and although the bulk have gone out with the ruled schedule for departure, some still sound.
In the case of the Valencian Community, autonomy with a significant weight of tourism from the British Isles, it is worrying that the march of the United Kingdom leaves certain visitors in the medium term in legal limbo. As he explains to the Economist Joan Calabuig, Delegate of Consell for the European Union and External Relations, Brexit leaves a “problem to solve” for the so-called “swallows”, those who spend more than three months a year in the region.
The problem that this group will face in the face of the restrictions on mobility that Brexit will introduce is that it cannot be considered a tourist – by exceeding the 90 days that the latter may be without more requirement than having a passport in vigor-, nor a British resident – for those who do not anticipate major complications with the march of the United Kingdom. Until now they enjoyed the free mobility that every European citizen has in the community space, but their future scenario is yet to be defined when the initial grace period passes.
Calabuig details that the Generalitat Valenciana was working on a contingency plan in case the dreaded hard Brexit occurred. “Suddenly a good number of citizens could have lost their rights. The Erasmus, the British councilors in Spain, the 100,000 residents in the Community – where we have 70,000 health cards – … the situation was of great uncertainty,” he says. The calendar that fixes the agreement, however, now establishes a period of two years extendable up to two more in which nothing will change.
“On the 31st day a solid agreement will be signed that will guarantee the rights of citizens for the next two years, with the possibility of extending until 2023. During this time, in which the United Kingdom will continue to fulfill its financial commitments with the European Union and will continue to obey European courts. The rights of all citizens will be exactly the same as until now, “he says.
And after this phase? “Then, based on the 'Political Declaration in which the framework of future relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom' is set forth, the forecast is that the rights of the current British residents remain unchanged – as well as those of the Spaniards who already live on the islands- “. “There is political will that does not affect them, even in health matters. There is a climate of guarantee, even for future residents who come here when Brexit has already taken place,” said Calabuig, who points out that the United Kingdom currently pays around of 240 million euros to Spain for the health of British residents and enters about 40 for the cost of health services provided in the nation to Spaniards.
Along the same lines, few changes are expected for tourists of less than 90 days. “They will need the passport, like so many other tourists from the world who come to the Valencian Community,” explains Calabuig. But the large group that currently arrives in Spain to spend long periods does not currently have a defined horizon. “Here is the problem to be solved, because the United Kingdom will apply many future restrictions to profiles of this type from the rest of the world. In terms of employment, for example, they speak of receiving only the labor profiles they need due to lack of workforce” , explains the regional leader. The question is: Should Spain provide facilities for British citizens who stay long periods when their home nation is restricting the stays of Spanish citizens?
According to Joan Calabuig, the United Kingdom will prioritize migration control, which is an essential aspect among those who motivated Brexit. “There will be barriers, there will be a reduction in mobility because they pursue it,” he predicts. Consequently, the work of states such as Spain and autonomies such as Valencia, which have a significant source of income in British visitors and investors, will be used in depth to minimize this damage.
Less trade changes
Joan Calabuig, on the other hand, considers that other important sectors for the Valencian Community such as agri-food or industrial, as well as exports of all kinds, will not suffer major changes with the agreed Brexit. The reason? That the United Kingdom also does not want substantial modifications with respect to the current collaborative framework for international trade. So much so that the British look at the trade agreement that Canada has with the European Union, considered one of the most modern and open-minded.
“You have to understand that the United Kingdom is an important nation, but not of the weight of China or the US. In addition, its main market has it in Europe, it is not going to suit him to make war on his own. In fact, he is going to give the paradox that will have to continue adapting to European standards at the commercial level but now unable to take part in the elaboration of them when making the decision to leave, “details the Consell delegate for the European Union.
In addition, standards problems should not occur with a nation that has been in tune with the community market for years. “It seems unlikely that the United Kingdom will now lower its environmental or social demands to be more competitive internationally,” says Calabuig.