A century ago, another Vladimir, Lenin, said “There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen.” The Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have pushed the EU into one of those decades-long coup crises. This Tuesday, the European Commission announced its plans to reduce Russian gas consumption by two thirds this year, and eliminate it by 2030, with a double objective: geopolitical independence from Moscow, and compliance with climate change objectives. It is a very ambitious plan, which will require effort and foreign aid. And US President Joe Biden has already made it clear that his country is going to do everything possible to help Europe achieve its goals.
The first of the points is to replace Russian oil exports that the US and the UK are going to stop buying, and that the EU is also going to cut. Washington has a strategic oil reserve, which has been used twice, and is discussing a third coming in the coming months if necessary. Its use is temporary, but it would be useful to be able to search for new providers.
And this is where the one who until recently was a sworn enemy of the US comes in. The Venezuela of dictator Nicolás Maduro took a surprising turn on Monday in its foreign policy, which he had already been suggesting since the war began, and announced meetings with the Biden Administration to rebuild their non-existent relationship. Donald Trump stopped recognizing Maduro as the legitimate president of the country after he outlawed Parliament after the victory of the opposition and replaced it with a chamber made up only of Chavistas through a series of fraudulent elections. In addition, Trump imposed a series of sanctions that have strangled the country’s oil industry, and that accelerated the enormous economic crisis that Venezuela has been dragging on since Maduro came to power.
In this time, Maduro has entrusted himself to Russia and China as a way of sustaining his battered economy. But last week, Venezuela refused to support Russia in the UN Assembly, a gesture that caused international surprise. And this Monday, even more unexpectedly, Maduro announced meetings with senior officials of the US government to negotiate the lifting of sanctions and the revival of the oil industry, which needs heavy investment to get back on its feet. In exchange, Maduro announced a dialogue program with the opposition, which wants a roadmap to restore democracy in the country, and a curious promise: “Produce three million barrels for world peace.” In other words, the US seems willing to rehabilitate Maduro if he replaces Russia in the international oil market.
Un ‘Plan Marshall’ industrial
Looking to Europe, Biden seems willing to search the toolbox of World War II. According to sources of Washington PostThe White House is considering mimicking the Lend-Lease Act, a law passed in 1941 that allowed the country to “supply any kind of material” needed to help Europe and other allied countries win the war.
In this case, however, the weapons the EU needs are not machine guns or tanks, but bombs. But pumps of a very specific type: heat pumps, to replace the gas boilers so common throughout the continent. Washington’s plan would involve setting up US industry, invoking the Defense Production Act, to produce heat pumps for export to Europe at the cheapest possible price. In this way, one of the objectives of the Brussels project could be met, to reduce household gas consumption to a minimum by the end of this same decade.
These mechanisms also go hand in hand with another of Biden’s wishes: to accelerate the electrification of the US economy to reduce the impact of high oil prices and curb climate change. And the US is willing to help the EU with technology if necessary, to increase the speed of the process on both sides of the Atlantic. The US is close to energy independence. But this war may have pushed Europe to seek theirs as soon as possible.
The US takes the step and prohibits the import of Russian oil, gas and coal
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