The equities of Europe have tried to recover some of the ground lost recently on Tuesday, but finally the red numbers have been imposed -nearly, yes- the red numbers (again). Although the increases seemed to settle amid the expectation for the EU plan to reduce energy imports from Russia and after announcing the Kiev government that it is open to dialogue on the conditions imposed by Moscow, the news that the US prohibits the import Russian oil and gas has installed caution in the market. The EuroStoxx 50 closes the session falling 0.18% to 3,505.92 points. Yes, the rebound of the Ibex 35, which rises 1.82% to 7,783.4 points.
European stock markets really started this day with falls of more than one percentage point, preceded by the heavy losses registered last night on Wall Street and this morning in Asia (Japanese Nikkei 225: -1.71%). However, the reference indices in the Old Continent It didn’t take long for them to turn aroundalthough the joy in most of the parks has vanished at the end of the day.
The Ibex has been the exception: it ends this Tuesday with an advance of close to 2% and is once again very close to 7,800 points. It has even exceeded 7,900 in the first part of the day, presenting increases of more than 3% just one day after marking lows since November 2020 below 7,300.
Among its 35 components, Grifols It has suffered marked falls from the first hour and has closed down more than 6%. At the end of the day they have accompanied him at the bottom of the table Fluidra and Acerinox with decreases of more than 4% and 3.5% respectively.
Renewables are one more day in purchases, as they are seen as an alternative to the possible shortage of other energy sources (such as gas or oil) due to the war in Ukraine. A) Yes, Solaria and Siemens Gamesa respective rises of 9% and more than 7%, respectively, are recorded.
Also today several banks are among the best values of the Ibex: CaixaBank is revalued almost 4% and Bankinter more than 3. BBVA and Banco Santander are also scored around 2.5%, and above it is another heavyweight like Inditex (+6,64%).
Also noteworthy is another blue chip What Telefónica. Although the session ends in the red (-0.81%), it has risen to nearly 4% in the first moments of trading, exceeding 4 euros in price per share, boosted by the news of the possible merger of MásMóvil and Orange in Spain.
A “vulnerable” rebound
Joan Cabrero, adviser to Ecotrader, considers that “everything points to the Ibex 35 could go in search of the area of 7,000-7,150 points” in the short term. Why? Because at the beginning of the week the key support that it had at 7,700 gave way.
This technical analyst points out that the strong overselling in the European stock markets can cause a rebound like the one that is taking place this Tuesday, but that this is “completely vulnerable”. That is why he is not in favor of buying European equities until the EuroStoxx 50 reaches the 2,900-3,100 units.
The continental selective, unlike the Ibex, has turned downwards in the final stretch of this session and lose the 3,500 integers.
oil pressure
“Only news about a possible rapprochement of positions between Russia and Ukraine could stop the falls in Western stock markets in the short term,” analysts at Link Securities believe.
In this sense, according to Interfaxthe president of Ukraine, Volodímir Zelenski, has been willing to negotiate with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. “I am willing to dialogue, but we are not willing to give up,” Zelenski said, always according to this news agency.
In addition, the stock markets continue to succumb to the pressure of energy prices and, therefore, to the fact that a stagflation scenario (without economic growth but skyrocketing inflation) is included in the equation of the world economy in the shortest term.
The barrel of Brent oil, a reference in Europe, has risen again this Tuesday, exceeding 131 dollars, the highest since 2008, before the confirmation that the United States will ban the import of Russian oil, gas and coal. A measure to which the United Kingdom will also join.
In parallel, Russia has threatened to cut off gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 in response to Western sanctions. “Neither Russia nor Europe are interested in the supply being interruptedthe first because of the source of income it entails and the second because of the high energy dependence on Russia (40% of the gas consumed, 25% of the crude oil),” point out the analysts at Renta 4.
“Even so, it is foreseeable that the tightening of prices will negatively affect the competitiveness of European industry (…), while at the same time translating into lower disposable income for families. Overall, lower growth accompanied by higher inflationalthough it is difficult to establish to what extent”, add these experts.
Bond interest rises
As for the fixed income market, sales prevail today in government bonds. As a result, interest rates rise. The German ten-year paper (bund) returns to have positive profitability in the secondary market with an interest greater than 0,1%. In the United States, the T-Note stands at 1.85%.
In Spain, the return on the ten-year bond is around 1.05%. The risk premium, which measures the spread with German debt, relaxes to 94 basis points.
Where are the markets headed? Read the answers of our advisor
The oil crisis brings the world closer to a new recession
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