Wild Card forecasts made just for the Bills Mafia, with one cold surprise
You’ve come to the right place if, like many of us, you want to bet on the Bills vs. Steelers Wild Card game tomorrow afternoon but only want to bet on Buffalo.
We have professional guesses about what the Bills’ box score will be after the game based on 10,000 simulations of the game. There are guesses for catching, running, and passing yards, as well as predictions for who will score the first and second touchdowns.
The Buffalo Bills along with the Pittsburgh Steelers will play in the Wild Card game on Monday, but the weather at Orchard Park will be terrible. The playoff game starts Monday at 4:30 p.m. There will be winds that don’t let up and temperatures in the single digits.
Listen to the Shout! show above to hear Bills writers Matt Parrino, as well as Ryan Talbot, talk about how the conditions might affect the game on Monday afternoon and guess how it will turn out.
Check out “SHOUT! The Buffalo Football Podcast” with Matt Parrino and Ryan Talbot, who write about football for the Buffalo Bills, and listen to it. You can also sign up for our newsletter to receive news about the Bills sent to your email every week.
If you enjoy playing your football with snow and wind, you might be in luck. The planned Sunday game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and the Buffalo Bills (11-6) had to be moved to Monday because of a big snowstorm.
However, bad weather may still affect the game. Though the snow and winds should stop, there could still be light snow, gusts of wind, and freezing temperatures when the game starts.
Kickoff was supposed to happen on Sunday, but the weather was bad. It was subfreezing, there were snowflakes and winds of 30 mph with gusts hitting 65 mph.
Because of bad weather, the NFL moved the game to Monday to make sure that both teams and their fans would be safe.
But these teams are still getting hit by winter weather, even though they play at a different time. Even on Monday, the Bills continue to hire people to help clear snow off of the seats and paths.
The weather for the game is likely to be more frigid than first thought, even though conditions might get better by Monday. Wind may also continue to affect both teams’ passing and kicking games.
This number has been changing all week. It started at 41 and went as low as 33.5 as the expected winter storm got worse before the game on Sunday.
Since the game was moved to Monday, the total went back up to as high as 37.5 at two of our favorite sportsbooks, even though winter weather is still a possibility for this game.
The center of the storm is scheduled to hit Buffalo on Saturday night and into Sunday morning. However, the winter storm watch is still in effect just hours before the game on Monday, and it will still be below 20 degrees.
Also, winds are expected to hit 15 mph. This isn’t as bad as the 50–60 mph gusts over the coming days, but it’s still too windy for a good passing game. Last week, when it snowed and blew out, the Patriots and Jets paid the smallest total in 30 years, 28.5.
Still, I’d bet on the Under at this game even if it weren’t going to be cold soon because the game on the field looks like it will be a slugfest.
Begin with the Steelers’ attack, which is by far the worst team on the field. Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh’s third-string quarterback, has shown some life, but most of his success has come from big plays that will be hard to make on Sunday because it will be very cold.
The Steelers will likely rely on their run game instead, as they have done for most of the season.
Pittsburgh has been sixth in the NFL since Week 10 in terms of running yards per game (142.9), behind the duo of Najee Harris as well as Jaylen Warren.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, both of them are in the top five within rushing yards over expected during that time.
Since Joe Brady took over as temporary offensive coordinator, the Bills run the ball more than they throw it.
Even so, Josh Allen has turned the ball over eight times over the past seven weeks of play, and Buffalo’s attack has lost three straight games by 27 points or less.
On paper, the Bills look like the better team, but I can’t see why you should lay more than 10 points on a game that could be ruined by snow showers and cold weather.
I put half a unit on the Steelers at +10, however, it was more of a side bet to go with my full unit bet on the Under.