Victor Wembanyama, a youngster for the Spurs, has lived up all the hype to 2023.
To be honest, the picture was a little shocking. The 6’10” forward with a wingspan of 7’5″, Kevin Durant, the “Durantula,” and the past MVP who sped up the evolution of the big man when he joined the NBA in 2007, stood during the free throw line in the shadow in Victor Wembanyama, the next big man.
“Avatar version” of Durant, said Darko Rajaković, the coach of the Raptors, who watched the match on TV.
To be clear, this is not meant to be a shade! Wembanyama could fulfill all of our wildest hopes as a 7-foot-4 teenager who possesses an unmatched mix of handle, shot-making skills, size, and sheer boldness, and he could even do it right away.
But while we all focus on the big new production and dominance horizons that Big Vic is about to set sail for, it’s important to remember what came before, if only to get a sense of how much you’d have to do and how quickly you’d have to do it to live up to the crazy high hopes that have been raised for Wembanyama’s arrival.
Wembanyama’s predecessors in San Antonio are near the top of almost every advanced statistical measure of rookie productivity since the draft lottery began in 1985.
These include win shares, win contributes per 48 minutes, value across replacement player, box plus-minus, and player efficiency rating.
After waiting two years to join the NBA because he had to finish his active-duty service in the U.S. Navy, David Robinson made an instant name for himself as one of the top centers in the game.
“The Admiral” played 36.6 minutes per game and averaged 24.3 points, which is still the most points scored by a rookie to the lottery era. He also grabbed 12 rebounds, blocked 3.9 shots, gave out two assists, and stole 1.7 balls.
Robinson won Rookie of the Year, but he also earned All-Star, All-NBA Third Team, or All-Defensive Second Team honors.
He also finished sixth in MVP voting following helping the Spurs go from being in last place in the Western Conference with 35 wins to making it to the second round of the playoffs with 56 wins.
In Texas eight years later, history would repeat itself. The Spurs were lucky enough to have a terrible season when another highly sought-after college big man entered the draft.
Robinson broke his left foot, Elliott got right quadriceps tendinitis, Person had back surgery, and Smith had chronic knee pain.
With an average of 21.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, or 2.5 blocks in 39.3 minutes per game, Tim Duncan quickly became one of the best big men in the game. I know, I know—I’ve heard this one before.
Duncan won Rookie of the Year, but he also earned All-Star, All-NBA First Team, as well as All-Defensive Second Team honors.
He also finished fifth in MVP voting when helping the Spurs go from being in last place in the Western Conference with 36 wins to making it to the second round of the playoffs with 56 wins.
Every draft class has some early failures, but there are good reasons to keep faith in almost every top-10 pick.
Scot Henderson, Amen Thompson, and Taylor Hendricks, who were on the early struggle bus, are going to be fine.
At the same time, the strength of the 2023 class has been clear to see. As candidates, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Brandin Podziemski, and Andre Jackson Jr. were all picked late in the first round or early in the second.
It’s way too early to make any firm judgments about the rookie class of 2023, but it’s frequently fun to rethink and re-frame possibilities after getting new information.
There are some NBA teams that are questioning the choices they made in June. On the other hand, some front offices are happy about their big win and thank their basketball gods that there aren’t any re-drafts.
The 2023 NBA Draft class could be the best ever. That starts with Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick, who is already stretching the edges of what is possible in his first season aboard the San Antonio Spurs.
It’s scary how much he still has room to grow. His game is still getting better, especially on offense, when the Spurs haven’t thoroughly put together a full team around him yet.