NFL Picks for the Wild Card Playoffs and The Browns vs. The Texans Media Picks
In the NFL playoffs for 2024, Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns will travel to Texas to play C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans on Saturday.
On Christmas Eve, the Browns beat the Texans 36–22, and Flacco put on a show by throwing for 368 yards or three scores.
However, Stroud was hurt in that game and couldn’t play, so Saturday’s game being a part of NFL Wild Card Weekend 2024 is going to be different from the first one.
In their last five games against the Browns, the Texans have lost four of them. However, Houston is 7-2 towards the spread in their last nine games against Cleveland.
The game will start at 4:30 p.m. ET from Houston’s U.S. NRG Stadium. The latest Browns vs. Texans odds from SportsLine show that Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite. The over/under score is 44.5.
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When it comes to top NFL picks since the 2017 season, the model has an amazing 183-129 run going into the 2024 playoffs.
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One of the best things about the Browns is their defense. They only allow 270.2 yards per game, which is the fewest in the NFL.
A strong defensive line has helped Cleveland’s secondary, which has limited opponents to 164.7 yards of passing per game.
Myles Garrett is a defensive end who always causes trouble. This season, he has 13 sacks. Another player who can change the result of a game is linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
He has 20 tackles for loss, two interceptions, and 3.5 sacks so far this season. Owusu-Koramoah has made 101 stops so far this season, and CB Martin Emerson Jr. has four interceptions, which is the most on the Browns’ team.
The Houston Texans shocked a lot of people this season. They went from being the No. 2 pick during the 2023 NFL Draft to winning the AFC South the next year.
A big part of that is rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. On Wild Card Weekend, he’ll play in his first playoff game, which will be at home against the Cleveland Browns along with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco.
Because of Flacco, the Browns had a great end to the season and are now the AFC’s top wild card team. The Browns had a better record compared to the Texans at the end of the regular season.
In the playoffs since 2002, quarterbacks who are making their first start against quarterbacks who have played in the playoffs before are 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) as well as 17-36 SU. This type of game includes the one between Stroud and Flacco, since Flacco was the Super Bowl MVP in 2011.
Still, I feel like the Browns are getting too much love in the road. Cleveland’s defense has been very different when they’re away from home compared to when they’re at home.
At home, the Browns give up the fewest points in the NFL (13.9 per game). On the road, they give up 29.6 per game, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL. Although there is a huge trend toward the Texans in the present match, they are still not going to lose.
That gives the Texans some hope at home in this game, and it’s important to note that they’ve been good as home favorites, going 2-2 against the spread and winning two games straight up.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Stroud and this system did well against Cleveland. Also, Flacco, who is getting older, might make a few mistakes to keep Houston within the game.