You have to go back to just over 13 years ago, at the end of November 2008, to find so many purchase recommendations on the Ibex 35. At that time, as now, until 16 values of the indicator received an advice to acquire their titles on the part of the consensus of analysts.
Of course, the situation and composition of the index was somewhat different from the current one, when just two months after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the Ibex trading around 8,900 points, the companies preferred by the experts They were, in this order: Técnicas Reunidas, Grifols, Ferrovial, Acciona, Iberdrola, Enagás, Inditex, Abengoa, Telefónica, Bolsas y Mercados Españoles, BBVA, ArcelorMittal, Red Eléctrica, Siemens Gamesa, Repsol and Endesa.
It is the first time that the selective starts a new exercise with tantos positive posters since there are records. A matter that is not trivial if one takes into account that the algorithm that elaborates the Economist With FactSet it is more demanding than the market, since only a quarter of the recommendations are buy, another quarter are a hold and half, sale.
Not even in the worst stock market moment in the last decade, the crash March 2020 Due to the pandemic, the Spanish index managed to reap such a high number of buying opportunities after the falls, whose maximum then was 14.
On the other hand, the number of sales recommendations has remained at five since May last year, when only Banco Sabadell, Meliá and Bankinter were charged with an advice to sell their securities. To date, only the Catalan entity repeats, which is accompanied by four securities linked to renewable energies: Siemens Gamesa, Enagás, Naturgy and Red Eléctrica.
The cycle continues to lead
The worst relative performance of the Ibex compared to the rest of the references on the Old Continent in the last 12 months, a period in which it rose by 8% compared to the 21% recorded by the EuroStoxx 50, has opened an opportunity to enter Acerinox at attractive prices , CIE Automotive, ArcelorMittal, Rovi, Cellnex, Indra, Iberdrola, Merlin Properties, CaixaBank, IAG, ACS, Almirall, Santander, Ferrovial, Grifols and Colonial.
Of this group of companies, the most solid recommendations are received by the two steel companies and all except Rovi ??, which joined the Ibex family in the last review of the year and is trading 6% above the target price given by the consensus. after bouncing 96% in 2021 ?? They have an upward potential of between 3% and 52% for the next 12 months.
The largest upward trend is provided by the biopharmaceutical Grifols, which continues to be among the analysts’ favorite with room to advance 53% to its fair price after dropping 28% in 2021 and despite its high leverage. “The company has time for the plasma deficit situation the sector is reversed, something that is clearly happening with high sequential growth in the number of donations that should be fully restored in early / mid-2022 “, says Albert Garrido, head of Discretionary Portfolio Management at Morabanc.
“This would allow the company to have a good 2022 and 2023 already fully normalized and for the debt ratio to reduce or get closer to the company’s objectives of 4 times by 2023 and 3.5 times by 2024,” he adds.
They are followed by ArcelorMittal with margin to advance 43% and Acerinox with 42%. The first is trading at one of the lowest PER (times that the profit is included in the share price) of the Spanish stock market, 3.5 times, and Iván San Félix, an analyst for Renta 4, believes that 2022 will continue to be favorable for Arcelor “considering the strength of demand, inventories at normalized levels in the main regions and with China maintaining the pace of exports.”
In the case of Acerinox, which trades with a profit multiplier of 5.5 times, it continues to offer solid fundamentals in the eyes of Bankinter: “Low inventory level, improvement in the demand for special alloys; and especially a more balanced commercial environment in Europe (measures in Europe and China promoting their local market) “, they list from the entity.
Morabanc, on Grifols: “The company has time for the sector’s plasma deficit situation to be reversed”
For its part, Inmobiliaria Colonial has been the last to join the Ibex 35 shopping club. It did so at the end of December and did not receive advice to acquire its early 2019 titles. “The growth of the company will depend on the development of its portfolio of projects, which will make its returns more predictable,” they point out from Barclays.
Analysts advise entering 74% of EuroStoxx stocks
Despite this greater buying appetite that the profitability gap of the Ibex 35 has aroused compared to European equities in the last 12 months, the truth is that Spanish continues to be the indicator of the Old Continent with the lowest purchase percentage among its peers.
If in the Spanish reference the number of purchases represents 45.7%, this figure rises to 51% in the case of Footsie British, 62.5% for the French Cac and 70% for the German Dax. In fact, both indices only have a sell recommendation among its members. In the case of the selective Teuton it is Deutsche Bank and in the case of the French indicator, Unibail-Rodamco.
However, the European index that brings together the highest percentage of purchases is the EuroStoxx 50, with 74% and no sales advice. In contrast, on the Stoxx 600, this figure drops to 47%. Across the Atlantic, the number of posters Green represents 51.8% on the S&P 500 and 63% on the Nasdaq 100.
The five Spanish stocks that start with the best recommendation for 2022
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