‘Spoiler’ of the permanence

It is not about changing from nothing, after 5-1 at La Cerámica, to everything after having won the first victory of 2022 against Getafe (2-0). In reality, it is something much colder than that. Statistics. And, although they are there to break them, as the perico team itself was in charge of achieving in the past –the only one that has recovered eight points with respect to permanence, in the 2008-09 season–, what the numbers now indicate is that Espanyol is saved. Virtually, of course, not mathematically. But saved after all.

La Liga Santander

*Data updated as of March 9, 2022

The thing is like this. Of the 66 teams –Espanyol among them and some, obviously, repeated– that have gone down to Second with the current LaLiga format –three points for victory and three direct relegations–, only four had at this point, after 27 days, the 32 points that Vicente Moreno’s squad adds. Initially, a six percent of options to go down, they will say, that within what is possible it is not something extremely remote. But it is that, looking closely at these cases, it is not exactly like that either. Is about seasons in which the descent was sold much more expensive that now, when the first team that would go down, Cádiz, only has 24 points.

The last one who fell having 32 points on day 27 was the Real Zaragoza of the 2007-08 campaignin which at this point relegation was only three points away, at 29, for the eight margin that Espanyol has. Proof of this is that the white and blues fell to Second having accumulated 42 points, a fact that seems impossible this year.

The previous precedent of going down with 32 points was that of Valladolid of the 2003-04 seasonin very similar circumstances. I was the decline by 27 points at this point, and ended up being relegated – in favor precisely of a Espanyol that gave him the baton in hell with only three days to go – despite having 41 points at the end of the championship. Virtually discarded today.

again the Zaragoza appears in this exception box, specifically the course 2001-02. And it is the only case that could worry Espanyol, albeit relatively, because although the first down then had 28 points on day 27, four more than today, the great sin of the Aragonese was that they only added five points in the remaining 11 days, so they fell bottom with 37. It is also true that, following these accounts, this season ongoing could be perfectly worth saving.

And the last one, or the first if you look at it in chronological order, was Betis from the 1999-00 financial yearwhich was especially unique. The Verdiblancos added not 32 but 33 points at this point in the championship, with the decline despite this to only two, in 31, and ended up going down with 42 points, in a table of (dubious) honor of descended that completed Atlético de Madrid and Sevilla. of aúpa

Thus, even the exceptions, once the accompanying asterisks have been explained in detail, invite reflection that Espanyol is virtually saved. Even the average points of the 66 teams that have dropped with the current format clearly leads to that conclusion: 24 points at this point. The same as Cádiz, curiously. Another story, beyond permanence, is that therein lies the purpose of the parakeet ensemble. From the club, rather. But that question would already be worthy of another report…