Picks for the Christmas tripleheader: Raiders during Chiefs, Giants that Eagles, and Ravens at 49ers
The Las Vegas Raiders, the Kansas City Chiefs, the New York Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Baltimore Ravens, and the San Francisco 49ers all play on Christmas Day in Week 16. “GMFB” breaks lower what to watch for in each game.
The 16th week of the 2023 NFL season ends on Monday night. There are three games on Christmas Day, including a few of the most important games of the year between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers.
The New York Giants play the Eagles of Philadelphia, and the Las Vegas Raiders play the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Baltimore Ravens are getting more support from me because my DVOA stats put them higher than almost any other advanced measure.
Still, even I think the 49ers will win the match because of how the teams are matched up. Based on DVOA, Baltimore has the best run game. However, the 49ers’ run defense has gotten better since the middle of the season.
Lamar Jackson throws in the middle in the field 25% of the time, which is one of the highest rates in the league. The 49ers’ pass defense is the best in the NFL against middle passes.
The Ravens’ defense gives up 0.8 greater yards per play when the ball is on base than when it is in nickel, as well as the San Francisco attack is set up to make you play base.
In the league since Week 10, the 49ers’ defense has been the best. The Ravens’ defense has been the worst.
The San Francisco 49ers have swept six straight games by 12 points or more since their bye week in Week 9. That has only been done by the Rams (7) in 1999 and the Patriots (8) in 2007.
Seriously, those are two of the best football teams ever. It looks like the 2023 49ers will have a similar history.
There’s not much that will stop me to betting on San Francisco right now, even though the Ravens are a great football team. 49ers -6.
Even though I might be wrong, I still think it will be hard for Purdy to win because of his offensive coordinator and all the good players around him.
I have a lot of doubts about Jackson too. He is placed eighth in QBR going into Sunday. The Ravens’ defense makes them a great team.
Instead, Josh Allen (+1000) and Dak Prescott (+650) are my top picks. If one of their teams can do that, I think that player will win MVP.
They are ranked third and second in QBR, along with according to FPI, both have at least a 30% chance to win their divisions, even though they are both favorites.
Monday’s tripleheader on Christmas Day marks the end of Week 16 in the NFL. It includes a matchup in the best two teams within the league.
There are 11-3 teams in the NFC, and 11-3 teams in the AFC. San Francisco is in first place within the NFC.
Lamar Jackson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but in two of his last three games, he has been held to less than 180 passing yards.
Based on the most recent 49ers vs. Ravens prop odds in SportsLine, he has thrown for 220.5 yards.
Brock Purdy, quarterback for the 49ers and choice for MVP, has thrown for 252.5 yards so far in Week 16 of the NFL season.
You should look at the NFL prop predictions driven by SportsLine AI before you bet on any NFL props for Monday’s tripleheader as well as enter your picks on sites like PrizePicks.
A team from SportsLine’s Data Science department used cutting edge machine learning and AI techniques to make predictions and grades for each player prop.
The AI makes estimates by statistically learning about every player’s past games and quantitatively judging the quality of the other team’s defense by giving it a score out of 100. This score is called a “matchup score.”
Once the AI has made a guess, it uses the prediction, the opponent’s score, and the market odds to come up with a rating.
For instance, an overbet against a weak defense might get 5 stars because the odds are in favor and the estimate is different from the line.