NFL Wild Playoff Predictions: The Best Playoff Picks from Experts
Overs have done well on Wild Card Weekend in the past, going 51-35 (59.3%) over the last 20 seasons.
Team competitions have mostly been held outside, though, during times of the year when the weather isn’t great for sports.
Eleven of the 19 times that indoor wild cards have gone over, but that’s not a very good sample size. I don’t care about past trends; I think this number is too low for many reasons.
Due to injuries sustained in the second half of this season, the Browns’ defense won’t be fully healthy. As a result, this unit is not as strong when playing away from home.
That’s one reason the Browns’ road overs went 8-0, which was the best record in the league, and beat the close by an insane average of 15 points each game.
In eight road games during the regular season, the Cleveland Browns gave up 29.75 points per game.
When the Browns’ backups played Case Keenum between Week 16 and Week 18, they let the Bengals score 31 points. Those points will be taken away.
Cleveland gave up more than 30 points in each of those six other games, and each opponent scored at least 24 points.
The three games before the season finale were against Justin Fields, Case Keenum, and Trevor Siemian. Before this, the Browns lost to the Broncos, the Jaguars, and the Rams. Each of those teams scored at least 28 points against them.
I will admit that I’m not sure how well C.J. Stroud will do in his initial playoff game with a new head coach since that combo hasn’t worked out very well in the past.
To give you an idea, since 2002, players who have never played in the playoffs before have only gone 17-35-1 (32.7%) against the point spread (ATS) or 17-36 straight-up (SU). But Stroud is better than most rookie quarterbacks, and I think he can make some big plays here.
The Texans’ defense has big problems that haven’t been fully shown because their opponents’ offenses have been so easy.
It’s true—they only played one team all season that had an EPA per play in the top 10. We played the Ravens in Week 1 and scored 25 points. It was the first game with a brand-new plan.
Each play, the attacks Houston faced had the 19th-best EPA. Only the Bengals and the Buccaneers, two other top-13 teams, scored more than 27 points against it.
During the regular season, the Browns were placed 28th in EPA per play. However, Joe Flacco has made the offense much better, as shown by the 36-point outburst he led in this stadium a few weeks ago.
Cleveland has scored over 28 points per game on average during Flacco’s five starts. The team’s passing offense has also gone from being in the bottom five to being in the top five.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski additionally provided Flacco a lot of freedom to use a very pass-heavy game plan, which I think he will do again on Saturday.
Nacua has been great, setting the record for most catching yards by a rookie. The Lions’ defense checks the pass 27th, which is what he has to deal with. Nacua and fellow wide receiver Cooper Kupp could have a huge game together.
For the first time ever, the NFL playoffs are here, and we’re ready to pick a winner. Super Wild Card Weekend has a lot of interesting games.
Tyreek Hill is going back to Kansas City, Matthew Stafford is going back to Detroit, and rookie star C.J. Stroud is trying to get his first playoff win.
We’ve put together, as we do every week, all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine in one place.
This way, you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as extra feature content for each game, such as best bets from our staff, plays from top SportsLine experts, and the SportsLine Projection Model.