The math they play in favor of Real Madrid in his match next week against PSG. According to a study made by the teacher Varela-Quintana and the professors from Economy Juan Prieto and July of the Corralfrom the universities of Oviedo and Castilla-La Mancha, the probabilities of classification the white team they go from 38.3% to 54.7% behind the elimination in the Champions of the rule of away goal (RGV). “It can be said that without the double value of the goals in the opposite field, Madrid has gone from having a very, very difficult tie to a difficult one, which is not little”, says Del Corral. “One thing is the numbers and statistics and another thing is a football game where there are factors what not governed by mathematical lawsbut actually the Madrid has it easier without the RGV“, confirms Varela-Quintana.
The three economists analyzedin an article published in the International Journal of Sport Financethe results of the two leg qualifiers in club competitions CONMEBOL between 1988 and 2014. The sample contains 594 heats in which RGV was not used (1989-2004) and 585 in which yes was used (1988, 2005-2014). It is therefore a significant sample, with more than a thousand eliminatory rounds. Between the conclusionsBesides the advantage for the team that plays the second home gamewith the elimination of the RGV it is shown that increases the probability to go to the overtime or penalties. By the way, finishing the game in the eleven meters will be much better than the Real Madrid shoot first. An article published by Professor Palacios-Huerta in the American Economic Review reveals that the one who takes the first penalty wins the shootout 65.9% of the time. But, beware, equally at a time of such tension there are even more factors that can tip the balance to one side or the other. “We’ve had a recent example with the Nadal’s victory at the Australian Open against Medvedev. It is the sample that the fmental strength is decisive at peak moments,” Varela-Quintana points out.
But if things go smoothly on penalties for whoever shoots first, it’s not a bad deal for Madrid to reach extra time against PSG. “The UEFA considers that the RGV provides a great away team advantage in case you reach the extension. The data, However, refute this argument. The percentage of qualifiers won by the home team in the second game was above 50% in the periods 1973-1986, 1987-1999 and 2000-2011, showing that the home team has advantage despite the RGV if it goes into overtime. By eliminating the RGV it is expected that the ties that require an extension will increase substantially, which will further favor the host teams in the second match of the tie”, say Varela-Quintana, Prieto and Del Corral.
He too order of play and the playoffsas the competition progresses, they will see affected for the annulment of the rule of the double value of goals in a foreign field. The removal of the RGV to break ties in the UEFA two-legged ties is going to increase the probability that teams playing the second match In his field pass the tie. This, in the round of 16suppose to give a biggest advantage to the teams that came first in the group in the previous phase. That is, an even higher prize is given to the teams that have done better previously, which does not seem like a problem. However, from quarters, the draw that determines the pairings and the order of play will have a greater effect than until this season on the final result. The quality differences as you progress through the competition reduced and consequently the order of play It will be a lot more important than it has been up to now.
But the numbers are one thing and Mbappé, another. The mathas the professors acknowledge, “cannot measure intangiblesthat in football there are many”. Indeed, in the first leg the state of form in which Benzema arrived, affected by the left semimembranous hamstring muscle, influenced. referee or what Orsato have the ‘aim’ to show the yellow card to casemiro and Mendy, that they were precisely the two warned by Real Madrid and that they they will lose the return at the Bernabéu next Wednesday due to an accumulation of cautions. Another scientist, Ron Delegge, already says: “99% of the statistics only reveal 49% of the story…”.