Justice Hill and Jahmyr Gibbs are NFL League Championship play props.
Only 7 of Hill’s 97 rush tries this season have gone over this number. That’s about once every 13–14 rush attempts.
He ran with the ball 13 times last week, which was the most this season. However, five of those times were shortly after Gus Edwards fled the game with an arm injury. Dalvin Cook also mixed in quite a bit.
I agree with the market that Hill will have about seven rushing chances against Kansas City.
He’ll be in charge of passing downs, and he gets a lot of rush tries on third down—the 13th-highest number among 79 qualified backs.
The Chiefs’ rush defense has appeared shaky at times this season, but on third downs, they have given up just 3.1 yards per rush for RBs, which ranks as the seventh-lowest rate. People will like Purdy, and he should be good at it in this home game.
Their DVOA rank for run defense is 27th, but I believe that number is a bit off since LB Nick Bolton has been out for eight games. He does a good job of stopping runs and is now fully healthy.
It’s the weekend of the conference championships! It’s hard to believe there are only three games left before the slow period before the MLB season. Let’s enjoy the last few games while we still can.
Thanks for coming back to the Athletic for a third time to talk about NFL props with me. The last two weeks of betting were both 3-1, which means that the good guys made money in yet another round of the playoffs.
This is my second straight act of disrespect towards the red-and-yellow GOAT. It was easy money on Sunday night.
The Chiefs were given 21 points, but I don’t see how they can score that many points without Kelce going for 70 yards.
Since 2017, there have been 17 playoff games or a full season, and the player has 126 receptions, 1,466 passing yards, and 18 touchdowns, which is nothing short of a first-ballot HOF bust.
Every game, he gets 7.4 catches for 86.2 yards. People didn’t accept what was going to happen; instead, they were drawn back into stories about pop stars on Valentine’s Day, and the renowned QB/TE battery did what they always do.
When he was the team’s main receiver, Kelce stood out. He caught all 12 passes in the playoffs, which is 26.3 percent of the team’s air yards and 29.1 percent of the team’s targets.
The Chiefs are the underdogs in this game against the Ravens, who have a strong but not perfect defense.
This year, Baltimore was smashed by T.J. Hockenson (11-86-0) as well as Trey McBride (10-102-0), who are elite tight ends.
There have been nine instances this season when Kelce has caught nine or more targets, and I’m pretty sure that he’ll get ten this Sunday.
That’s it. This is the last week of the 2023 NFL season, so there will be a lot of games. The next big game is Super Bowl LVIII on February 11.
But for now, the Championship Round is very exciting. In the AFC, Baltimore plays Kansas City, and in the NFC, San Francisco plays Detroit.
Now we’ll do what we did during the playoffs: talk about DraftKings and FanDuel’s good and bad buys.
Let’s make a few dollars while you enjoy the games, and we can still have fun setting up a lineup or two. For each game, I’ll also add a few player props that I like.
You can also go to SportsLine to see two lineups I’ll be using this weekend. Have fun creating DFS lineups and let’s make money in the Championship Round.
Deebo Samuel (shoulder) should be healthy for this game for Purdy, but I still like Purdy even if Samuel is out or limited.
In the Divisional Round, Purdy had a bad game against Green Bay. He threw for 252 yards, scored one touchdown, and had no interceptions. He also ran for 14 yards, yet this matchup is too tempting to pass up.
During the regular season, the Lions were third in the league in Fantasy points given up by opposing quarterbacks. In the playoffs, Matthew Stafford (367 passing yards, two touchdowns) as well as Baker Mayfield (349 passing yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions) shredded this secondary.