Eibar will face the last 11 games of the championship with the mission of achieving permanence and chaining its seventh consecutive season in First Division. The scenario is not ideal since the schedule is very demanding both competitively and physically, the team will not be able to count on Ipurua's support and the risk of injury rises for the oldest team in the category.
Even so, it should not be forgotten that Eibar starts, leaving, with two points of advantage over the relegation positions and that precisely this veteran can help him to adapt to circumstances as special as the ones he will face.
The question that everyone asks is how many points will the team have to score to achieve the desired permanence. Unfortunately there is no magic number, but an analysis of various aspects can lead us to conclude that four more victories could be enough. We explain the reasons.
If we take into account the average points that each team has achieved this season we see that Mallorca, the team that currently marks the decline, averages 0.92 points per game, which, transferred to the end of the season, would lead to adding 35 points , so Eibar would only need three wins to reach permanence since it would add 36.
However, in the last days the teams below usually improve their average. In fact, in the last five games before the break the Balearic team averaged 1.4 points per game, a rhythm that, if maintained in these last 11 days, would lead to 40 points and would force those from José Luis Mendilibar to add 14 points or, what is the same, four wins and two draws or five wins. However, that Mallorca maintains this rhythm seems difficult because we are talking about an average of points that in a whole season would bring it closer to European positions.
Similar leagues
A third perspective that could help us when establishing a border is to check what has happened in seasons similar to the current one in terms of scoring. For example, we see that last season, on matchday 27, Celta marked the decline with the same 25 points that Mallorca has and although the vigueses were saved by adding 41 points, with 38 it was enough to maintain themselves.
In 2015/16 Granada, Rayo and Getafe reached matchday 27 tied in eighteenth place with 26 points, with Sporting (24) and Levante (20) below. Sporting and Granada, with 39, were saved, descending Rayo (38), Getafe (36) and Levante (32).
A year earlier the situation was almost traced, with Levante, Deportivo and Almería tied at 25 points and with Granada (22) and Córdoba (18) closing the classification. That season Eibar dropped with 35 points, the same with which Granada and Deportivo were saved, while Almería (29) and Córdoba (20) went to Segunda along with Elche, dropped in favor of Eibar due to defaults.
In 2013/14 Almería marked the descent with 26, tied with Rayo and Valladolid. Osasuna (39), Valladolid (36) and Betis (25) fell, saving Almería and Elche with 40.
As you can see, with 39-40 points it is usually enough to save in championships that take place with scores similar to the current one, which would force Eibar to add four wins. And four wins in 11 games doesn't seem far-fetched to accomplish. In fact, if Eibar maintained its current point average in the competition (1), the gunsmiths would end up with 38 points.
The problem may undoubtedly come from the calendar, since Eibar must visit Real Madrid, Getafe, Granada, Seville, Espanyol and Villarreal; and receive Athletic, Valencia, Osasuna, Leganés and Valladolid. There you should look for those four victories.
Waiting to enter the competition to look for those longed for four victories, Eibar continues its preparation with a view to its league premiere on Sunday (7.30 p.m.) at Alfredo di Stefano against Real Madrid.
For this, the team returned yesterday to the Ipurua Stadium, where they held their last weekly session since today the staff will enjoy a rest day.
The team was able to carry out exercises with the ball and a game to adapt to the conditions of a League match. And it is that this will be the main problem of all clubs, the absence of friendlies that will prevent calibrating the true state of form of the players.
On Monday the team will return to activity with a new training session in Atxabalpe.