Atlético clings to the ‘2016 model’ to finish in the Champions League

Among the unknowns of what the resumption of the League after three months without competing and without an exact calculation of how many points it will take to reach the Champions League, even more with a table as tight as it is now, the memory of the final sprint of the 2015-16 academic year emerges as the model to follow for el Atlético de Madrid
of Diego Simeone: He added 27 points in the last eleven appointments, which now would be more than enough, and solved two rounds of ‘Champions’To advance to the final.

On that occasion, the rojiblanco team, which competed for the title and not for fourth place, as now, won nine of their eleven final matches of the championship (1-3 at Valencia, 3-0 at Sports of La Coruña, 5-1 to Betis, 1-3 at Spanish, 3-0 at Pomegranate, 0-1 at Athletic Club, 1-0 at Malaga, 1-0 at Vallecano Ray and 2-0 at Celtic) and lost two: 2-1 with the Sporting of Gijón and 2-1 with the I raised. He scored 24 goals and just received seven. He finished third in the table … And in the final of the Champions League.

Because, while following an impressive rhythm in the League, he also dazzled in the highest European competition, capable of defeating in the quarterfinals the Barcelona (2-1 in the Camp Nou and 2-0 in the Vicente Calderón) and then to Bayern Munich. He beat him in the Apple orchards by a 1-0 he did well in Germany with a 2-1 loss and one more exhibition of Jan Oblak in the goal of the Athletic. Now he awaits a rival in the quarterfinals with all the ambition in the world.

Numerically, it is the best final straight of the era of the Argentine coach in charge of the rojiblanco team, even above the 2013-14 campaign, when he was champion of League and he was also a finalist of the maximum European tournament, with 26 points in the last eleven appointments; the same ones that he also insured in 2016-17. In the rest of seasons Simeone down the record: 22, in 2014-15; 20, last year; 19, in 2012-13 and 2011-12; and 18, in 2017-18.

His average in that section is 22 points, probably enough to reach at least fourth place. There is no doubt that the best (the 27 points of 2015-16 and the 26 of 2013-14 and 2016-17) would be unstoppable now to reach at least fourth position in the table. And the rest maybe too, although the Athletic is now in sixth place, one point behind the Real society, fourth, and Getafe, fifth, and five of Seville, third and with one more meeting.


In the last decade, the maximum points in 11 days that required being fourth at the end of the tournament were 22. In 2012-13, the Malaga he was 44 at the end of episode 27 of the championship in that position; the Real society concluded with 66 on the fourth step of the table to grab the pass to the Champions League of the following course. We had to add 21 in 2014-15, 20 in 2016-17 and 2017-18 … The minimum was 11 Villarreal in 2015-16.

In the case of Athletic, four of the eight final lines of the season with Simeone They would be enough to overcome any of those precedents. 50 percent. It is not a guarantee.

In this decade, in the situations most similar to today -that is, a room that is around 46 points at this point, as it currently has Real society-, the need for points to reach fourth position and the ticket for ‘Champions’It ranged from 16 and 17 of 2018-19 and 2009-10, respectively, to 22 points in 2012-13.

More specifically, in 2018-19, last year, the Getafe he was fourth at the moment with 45 points and the Valencia it was in the end with 61; in 2009-10 the Majorca he was fourth with 46 on matchday 27 and then he was Seville at the end of the tournament with 63; and, in 2012-13, the Real society He achieved that position with 66 points, 22 more than the sum of the Malaga at appointment 27.


The average points to be fourth in the last ten seasons is 67. That would mean that, likewise, the Madrid team requires 22 points to achieve that goal, because they now have 45.

He has already done this before with Simeone in four of the eight previous courses, but the question arises as to the current one

: Are you capable of that production in eleven days as it has been irregular in the present League?

The numbers say that the current Athletic is the worst of Simeone in a full season at the helm of the rojiblanco team. Its 45 points are unknown at this point, much lower even in each of the preceding years: at 64 of 2013-14, at 61 of 2015-16 and 2017-18, at 57 of 2012-13, at 56 of 2018-19 and 2014-15 and even the 52 of 2016-17, with which there are seven points of difference at this point in the championship.

Nor had I ever succeeded with Simeone as few wins, 11, in 27 days as now (the worst record before were the 15 victories in 2016-17), or as many draws, twelve, as today (the maximum was eight in 2018-19).

At the same time, Atlético is the least goalscorer of the era Simeone, with 31 points. His worst data in that regard before was 39 in 2018-19. And that the team has scored eight of those goals in the last four appointments. So the Champions League still in doubt, pending a powerful final sprint, which begins this Sunday in San Mamés, with eleven already apparently defined.

This Friday, the Argentine coach insisted on the same probable lineup of the entire week, with Jan Oblak; Kieran Trippier, Stefan Savic, José María Giménez, Renan Lodi; Koke Resurrección, Thomas Partey, Saúl Ñíguez, Yannick Carrasco; Marcos Llorente and Diego Costa.

The return of group dynamics Angel Correa, after two weeks of sick leave due to a muscle injury, has not altered the idea he has managed Simeone in the last days, according to evidence. The Argentine will be ready to San Mamés. There they are Joao Félix sanctioned, sanctioned, and Sime Vrsaljko, injured. Víctor Machín, ‘Vitolo’, and Felipe Monteiro, who trained again on the sidelines in this Friday's session, are doubtful for the return of the Athletic to the competition.