There is a false myth in football that Gerard Piqué exposed yesterday through his Twitter account: in penalty shootouts, those who shoot first almost always win. Most likely, while reading this, they consider that it is a correct theory and perhaps in its day it was or has contributed to it several characteristics in which, indeed, the first pitcher is the one who has celebrated the victory at the end. Nevertheless, BeSoccer has produced a report that goes against the idea defended by the Barcelona central defender, based on the penalty shootouts held in the last ten years.
The study is based on all penalty shootouts that have been reached in Champions, Europa League, European Super Cup, World Cup, Euro Cup, America Cup and Conference Cup. In the last ten years (dates studied), a total of 58 games have been decided from the fatal point. In 28 of them, the team that pitched first won. At 30, the one who shot after. That is to say, it is not true what Piqué defends that the former has a clear advantage, since the data indicates that it is just the other way around or that, at least, there is considerable equality.
But, is it possible that there is a trend that supports Piqué's tweet? At least not in the medium term. BeSoccer has also wanted to study this phenomenon for years to see if those who shoot in first position win more and more. It is not like that either. In the past five seasons, there have been 24 points, with ten wins for the first pitcher and 14 for the second. In other words, it could be understood that, if there was a trend, it would not be along the lines of the false myth, but rather the opposite. And that the facilities when carefully studying the opponent's throws equalize the forces and that psychological plane loses steam.
The possible existence of this trend comes from the fact that in the five seasons prior to these last five, 34 rounds were played. In them, the first one did win more times: 18 versus 16. The situation has been reversed, although there does not appear to be a considerable contrast to draw conclusions. So why has Piqué defended this idea if the data goes against it? Curiously, So far in 2021 with the competitions studied by BeSoccer, the first pitcher sweeps. Of the eight held this year, in six the winner was the one who chose to shoot first.
Another curious fact that the BeSoccer report presents is the drastic comparison between World Cups and Euro Cups. Taking the last ten years as a reference, there have been eight batches in each of the competitions. In the world tournament, he won the first and six twice, the second. In Europe, just the other way around: two wins for the second and six for the first. In short, penalties are not a lottery, another recurring phrase, but in rounds, whoever shoots first does not have an advantage either. At least that's what the data shows. Piqué proposes a mixed formula, in which the order of the pitcher is changed. Who knows if that would equalize the forces even more. Be that as it may, stat in hand, don't be alarmed: if your team misses the coin toss, you still have your chances of winning intact.