This year’s Oscar have achieved what rarely occurs in the history of the Academy: keep the suspense until the last minute. Unlike other editions in which a film razed mercilessly, this time the panorama is much more uncertain, with several favorites that have been falling and resurfaced into bets.
Today, everything indicates that the great battle of the night will be between Aor y Conclave. The first, a small film born in the independent circuit, has conquered the academy with the same stealth with which he climbed up to the top in Cannes, where he took the golden palm. A director outside the industry, a story that has dug deep and the feeling that it could be the most “pure” commitment of this year, they have turned it into the last minute winning horse.
But Conclave He has not said his last word. It is the thriller of the season, with a manual script that has worked at the box office much better than Aor And, in a blow of unthinkable luck, he has seen how today gave him an extra push with Pope’s disease. The academy, which sometimes cannot resist rewarding films that capture the spirit of the moment, could give it the victory.
The collapse of ‘The Brutalist’ and ‘Emilia Pérez’
Meanwhile, two other films that seemed firm contenders have seen how their career fell apart. The Brutalistby Brady Corbet, began with great force, taking the Golden Globe and the Bafta, but has polarized both critics and academy. Its end, as unconventional as provocative, has generated a fierce debate. His great triumph, according to some academics, is to have come here.
The case of Emilia Pérez It is even more dramatic. With thirteen nominations, it was the great favorite in numerical terms, but the constant controversies around its theme and production have been cornering it. In fact, it is almost for granted that the Oscar will lose to best international film in front of I’m still herethe powerful drama of Walter Salles about the Brazilian dictatorship. The Brazilian community in Los Angeles has made a fierce campaign to secure the award and everything indicates that it will get it.
Actors: last minute surprises
The interpretive panorama has also become unpredictable. Demi Moorewhich seemed to have the statuette assured by The substancehas been losing strength in recent weeks. His role remains one of the most commented of the year, but the ascending Mikey Madisonwith his victories in the Spirit Awards and the Bafta, he could steal the Oscar at the last moment. And do not underestimate FERNANDA TORRESthe Brazilian representative, who arrives with a strong support.
As for the best actor, the award seemed to Adrian Brody… until it arrived Timothée Chalamet. His interpretation of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown It has been applauded by critics and the fact that singing and exciting has finished convincing many academics. His victory in the actors union has completely changed bets. It has no Oscar, it is a rising star and the narrative around it is perfect.
Zoe Saldañaonly member of Emilia Pérez who has managed to survive the general sinking of the film, has its practically assured Oscar. Instead, Kieran Culkinwhose performance in A Real Pain Many consider more a repetition of themselves than a true interpretive role, continues to play strongly. Sometimes, being loved in the industry weighs more than talent itself.
While the main awards are still in the air, the most commercial films have found their place in the technical and musical categories. Wicked y Dune 2 They may not be in the conversation for best film, but they will take a prize that recognizes their spectacularity.
The panorama is, in short, one of the most uncertain of recent years. I may Aor be the film that is imposed in the queen category, but Conclave He is waiting to give the coup of grace. In the interpretive categories, everything can happen. The only sure thing is that tonight will be one of the most exciting of recent times.
La Barco’s pool
Nominated for Best Film
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet)
A complete unknown (James Mangold)
Conclave (Edward Berger)
Dune: Party 2 (Denis Villeneuve)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)
I’m still here (Walter Salles)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross)
The substance (Corale Fargeat)
Wicked (Jon M. Chu)
I should win: Anora
He will win: conclave
Nominated for Best Director
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Fargeat Coralie (The Substance)
I should win: be baker
He will win: Brady Corbet
Nominated for best leading actress
Demi Moore (the substance)
Fernanda Torres (I’m still here)
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey madison (anano)
I should win: Mikey Madison by Anora
Will win: Demi Moore for the substance
Nominees for Best Protagonist Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A complete unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice. Trump’s story)
I should win: Timothée Chalamet for Complete Unknown
He will win: Timothée Chalamet by A Complete Unkwnon
Nominated for Best Delivery Actress
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Isabella Rossellini (conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
I should win: Felicity Jones for The Brutalist
He will win: Zoe Saldaña by Emilia Pérez
Nominees for Best Delivery Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Amprentice. Trump’s story)
I should win: Jeremy Strong by The Apprentice
He will win: Kieran culkin by A Real Pain
Nominated for Best International Film
I’m still here (Brazil)
The needle girl (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The seed of the sacred fig (Germany)
Flow (Letonia)
I should win: Emilia Pérez
Will win: I’m still here
Nominated for best original script
Aor
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The substance
I should win: Anora
He will win: The Brutalist
Nominated for best script adapted
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
I should win: A Complete Unknown
He will win: conclave
