The statistical window of the promotion remains in a crack

The nine points achieved in the last ten games of Las Palmas have sunk the promotion expectations of the yellows. The goal of reaching a place in the promotion, or fighting side by side at least, seems increasingly distant. With promo point distance at its season high, mid- to long-term views lose value in favor of what’s right in front of you.

And what is coming to the yellows right now is nothing more than a mathematical match point if it is an emotional one. Girona. The Catalans mark the border between the postseason or the beginning of the preseason from day 42 and they are now at 5 points. So the people of Girona will visit Gran Canaria at the moment of truth for the yellows.

“Take each week as a final” He said Jesse at a press conference last week, before Cartagena Kirian thought something similar. “We have to start living all the matches as finals”. This is one of the mantras that is repeated in football, something that Xisco Muñoz, coach of the last yellow rival, rebelled against before the match against the Canaries. “It is not a final, because a final is when there is nothing else after”.

After Girona, eleven more games await Las Palmas, 33 more points. So following Xisco Muñoz’s statement it would not be a final. However, with a sixth place at 8 points, the disadvantage, if not insurmountable, remains close. Something that is supported by the data.

In the worst case scenario for the yellows after the match, a defeat would mean being eight points behind the promotion with eleven games ahead. Here the statistical reality advances that with that difference on this day no team has qualified for the promotion, established in the 10-11 season. Not even Córdoba from the 14-15 season, which was nine points behind sixth and would reach a safe-conduct in extremis, finishing seventh., when Barcelona B slipped into the top three. Finding the Cordovans, despite their 39 points and their fifteenth position, 5 points behind Tenerife, the team that de facto marked the promotion, the seventh position.

With a draw, the options are also not rosy in statistical terms. Well, only Córdoba from 13-14 has been able to reach promotion being five points away from it.

It is true that in the absence of 33 points, mathematics would continue to givebut none of the 66 teams that have qualified in the top six at the end of the season were with such a difference, those potential five and eight points in the event of a tie or yellow defeat against Girona.

The silver bullet that Las Palmas keeps is victory and against the best rival to spend it. Being at least two points away from promotion on matchday 31, seven teams managed to sneak in at the end of the season. They account for 16% of all the teams they promoted: those mentioned Cordoba and Murcia from 13-14in addition to Alcorcón and Hércules in 11-12, Girona in 15-16, Valladolid in 17-18 and Girona in 20-21. Although if you turn the sock around, 84% of the teams classified at the end of the league were on matchday 31 less than two points or in promotion.

But to reach promotion these seven teams had to average 22.25 points in the following 11 days. Which would mean that the yellows should get the same points as in the previous 19 games or maintain a streak similar to the one they did since the home game against Ibiza, matchday 5, and the view to Oviedo on date 15.

It may be that against Girona Las Palmas he does not play a final. But if there has been an important game for the yellows so far, it will be against the Girona side to be able to continue clinging to a burning blemish that is released as the days go by.