The promotion to Primera: between the feat and the average

Since the Girona match, the yellow story changed. From distance running to sprints. García Pimienta’s men look at the next thing and that’s it. The coach clung to this script after the draw against Ibiza. “When there are one or two days left, we will see if we are capable or worthy of fighting for something else. The five remaining games, we are going to go out and win them. Starting with the Malaga match without thinking beyond it”.

And the afterlife is complicated. History says that Las Palmas would step on the land of the feat to reach promotion. The statistical window had closed for the Gran Canarians at the conclusion of Girona because no team had been able to rise a distance of 9 points with the sixth classified. Nevertheless, the four consecutive victories allowed him to break a gap that has narrowed in the last two days.

We said achievement because, since La Liga established the promotion playoffs in 2010-2011, of the 44 teams that have qualified for promotion, 38 were already in promotion at this point. Only six teams turned the situation around. Looking at their flip side, only six teams fell out in the end. In other words, 86% of the teams that were in promotion on matchday 37 endorsed it at the end of the league.

But this historical deed does not remain in the few times that this fact has occurred. but in what never a team was able to lift a team a distance of five points in the last five days (with an asterisk). Which magnifies the challenge that hides behind García Pimienta’s game by game.

The asterisk, Sergio González’s Valladolid from 2017-18. Who was four points away on matchday 37 of the promotion. But it is that the pucelanos, added 12 points, were fifth and had two left over at the end to enter. The rest of the teams that, being away with five games to go, managed to sneak into promotion at the end of the league, were Córdoba in 2013-14 Girona y Cordoba again in 2015-16, Malaga in 2018-19 and lightning in 2020-21. All were only one point apart, except for the Cordoba in 2013-14 who were tied on points. Of these 6 teams, Córdoba from 2013-14, Valladolid and Rayo rose.

Of course, all these teams had to make a very productive final sprint in points. And it is that all, except Córdoba from 2013-14, added more than 10 points. Who else, Valladolid. As expected. Pucela’s men closed the league with four wins and one loss. On average, these six teams achieved 2.2 points per game in the last five games.

Expanding the perspective we see that these numbers were not maintained in the teams that played. Averaging 1.68 points per game, that is, 8.4 points in the five games. Not reaching three wins on average.

Those who fell and a coach who appears in half the occasions

Turning the coin around, we have that for there to be teams that rose to promotion, there must be teams that lost their place. The great paradox that is observed is that in four of the six occasions the team that fell was not the one that marked the promotion, but the fifth classified (in 2013-14 the sixth as Barça B got involved).

The second curiosity is that half of those fallen teams were trained by Cervera. Tenerife from 2013-14 and Cádiz from 2017-18 and 2018-19. And it was Cervera who starred in the biggest setback: that of Tenerife in 2013-14, when marching sixth (with Barça B in third place, which activated a seventh place) they lost the last five games.

Real Oviedo in 2015-16 —sixth— and Cádiz in 2018-19 —fifth— would only add three points. The other three teams that lost their place were Zaragoza from 2015-16 —fourth— and Cádiz from 2017-18 —fifth—. These teams added only five points, one per game. Sporting in 2020-21 —fifth— did not benefit from the seven points they got in the last five games because they would finish seventh.

The yellow statistic clings to these falls, although the group does not look beyond Friday, when Málaga visits the Gran Canaria stadium. One of the three clubs that since the 2010-2011 season have achieved a total of victories in the last five games. The other two, Marcelino’s Villarreal and Paco Herrera’s Las Palmas.

An average for yellow hope

In the fiction statistics, in case of achieving a full victories, the grancanarios would reach 70 points, that figure has always been valid to enter promotion except in the 2011-12 season. Being the minimum 61 points on three occasions, in 2014-15, 2013-14 and 2019-20.

Las Palmas con Pimienta, averages 1.57 points per game. What to maintain these numbers would place it in a range of 62-63 points; this has served to classify in 3-4 seasons. But If they maintain the rhythm of the last 6 games, that is, at a rate of 2.33 points, the projection is placed at 11-12 points. Which would mean 66-67 points and except in 2-3 seasons whoever has added this number of points has gotten into promotion.