The few options of Sabadell to lead the dream fusion of Oliu

The president of Sabadell, Josep Oliu, has had no qualms to set the Spanish financial sector on fire again with his repeated declaration of intentions to lead a merger in the face of bad business prospects and profitability for banking by negative rates. “Maybe yes, we'll see,” said the head of the fourth largest entity in our country. With just this phrase, he launched a message to navigators, including the newly released PSOE-Podemos coalition government.

Less than a year ago, the Catalan banker revolutionized the panorama of the system with the public recognition that he had undertaken talks to carry out an operation with Bankia, but these had been paralyzed by political uncertainty and the advanced call for elections.

It is not surprising that Oliu intends to lead a corporate operation of the bank that he presides with the nationalized group despite the complexity of this process. The union would turn the new group into a giant, which could protect the very CaixaBank and BBVA. Santander would be major words.

This integration dreamed up by the Catalan executive seems complicated, according to different sources, maximum after Podemos has fully entered the Government, with a vice presidency of Pablo Iglesias included The claim of the purple party is to keep Bankia as a public bank, something that is unlikely but will inevitably extend the process of its privatization process. The State has 62% of the capital of the entity led by José Ignacio Goirigolzarri.

“The domes of Unicaja, Liberbank and Ibercaja are not willing to lose their power”

It must also be taken into account that Pedro Sánchez is sustained in Moncloa thanks to the support of the PNV, a training that aspires for entrepreneurs to once again influence BBVA through its integration with Bankia. An objective that cocha frontally with the transaction that Oliu would like.

Only some devastating consequences of the judgment on IRPH mortgages and, above all, catastrophic results in the stress tests that regulators will perform on the sector could modify the current situation and give the conditions for Sabadell to get the precious prey. Of course, it would have as a reference partner to the State so that at least part of the 24,100 million that the nationalized entity still has to be recovered can be recovered, through the placement in the market of the shares of the new group resulting from a exchange of titles.

Scenarios

With these few possibilities to succeed in its purpose, Sabadell could open other scenarios to lead a merger or undertake a balanced integration. The alternatives are very limited and it has been shown that those responsible for Unicaja, and Liberbank (much more Ibercaja) are willing to assign power quotas. They want to be yes or yes the front of the respective resulting groups to approve any type of concentration operation. It is not negotiable, so it considerably complicates any movement.

For the dome of these three entities it is essential to preserve positions and command posts in order to defend the interests of the foundations that still control the banks of the old banks. Liberbank broke down in May last year the merger with Unicaja after months of negotiations for power quotas. And he did the same before with the integration he planned with Ibercaja. In the sector, they assume that these three are intended to be understood at some point.

The State would have to disburse 700 million in a hypothetical merger between Bankia and Sabadell, according to Bank of America