The European stock market is 4% away from signing peace and banishing the bear market

The day on Wednesday started with the European stock markets discounting the advances of the war conflict that, hours later, were known. The green that dyed the market of the Old Continent from the first hour of the day intensified when the existence of a first draft of 15 points than Russia and Ukraine They will study to put an end to the war, which brought some calm to this convulsive panorama, despite the fact that the noise of the cannons has not yet ceased. The draft on which they worked in the negotiation round includes a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russia if kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to the newspaper. Financial Times.

With this perspective, the positive shock experienced yesterday leads Europe to stay 3.9% away from reaching the levels that would cancel the bear market, just as explains Joan Cabrero, advisor to Ecotrader: “The loss of support presented by the EuroStoxx 50 in the 4,000 points already warned us of a serious upward deterioration in the European stock markets, while the transfer of 3,600 points opened the door to a bear market that, for the moment, the rebound of the last sessions is not putting in check”.

In this sense, Cabrero adds that “in order for us to have technical evidence that cancels out this bearish market and raises the possibility that we have seen a bottom at the lows seen in the area of ​​3,387 points, it is necessary for the EuroStoxx 50 to overcome the resistance that it presents on the zone of 4,000/4,050 pointswhich is an old support and a range whose range would mean a recovery of 61.80% and two thirds respectively of all the fall that was born in the January highs from 4,400 points”.

Thus, the European selective, which registers 9.5% so far this year, stays 2% away to recover the levels it touched before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, and a rise of 10.9% is noted from the minimums it visited in this same period (see graph).

As for the Spanish selective, despite not having recorded such an attractive rebound as the rest of the community stock markets on the last day, it is the European indicator that is closest to reaching pre-war levels, since the best performance it has had on the floor in the previous days now plays in their favor. A) Yes, the Ibex 35 is only 0.7% away from recovering of the conflict and achieves a rebound of 9.6% from the lows of the conflict, which touched on March 7 when it closed at 7,644 points.

The German Dax, which registers 9% so far this year and rebounded 3.7% on Wednesday, is the next in the ranking of European indicators that is closest to recovering pre-war levels, with a distance of 1 .3% and a rebound of 12.5% ​​since it bottomed out in the siege of Ukraine. The last would be the French Cac, which rebounded 3.7% yesterday, is still 2.2% away from reaching the figures that it had before February 24, with a rebound of 10.4% from the lows.

According to Craig Erlam, Senior UK and EMEA Market Analyst at OANDA, caution is still needed about how the conflict will evolve, despite the latest and most optimistic information: “Considering how they have developed developments in the last month, I remain cautiously optimistic at best about a deal. Especially if you take into account that Russian attacks on Ukraine continue during the negotiations. There is still a good chance that the talks will fall apart over the outstanding issues and that Russia will continue its offensive, and investors should be cautious about that,” the expert said.

Most bullish values ​​of the Ibex

Since the war broke out in the early hours of February 24, there have been many lurches that the stock indices of the whole world have given, to the sound of the news of the siege, as has happened with the listed companies.

In this sense, the most bullish value of the Ibex 35 in this period, at the close of the market on Wednesday, is Solaria, which records a rise of 47.5% and to date the losses in the year had been the usual for the photovoltaic energy producer.

Followed by this company is PharmaMar as the second company that has risen the most in the Spanish selective since the beginning of the war, with a rebound of 19.7%. The third on this list is Acciona, which falls behind the pharmaceutical company by very little, with an increase of 19.1%.

The same thing happens to Indra, which is hot on the heels of the company run by José Manuel Entrecanales with a rise of 19% from February 24. The last company to close the top 5 of companies that bounced the most since the war began is Fluidra, with a 13.4% rise.

Outside the Ibex, Dia, which monopolized part of the spotlight during the conflict, was one of the companies that rose the most yesterday in the Spanish stock market, thanks to a rebound of 16%. In contrast, Deolio, which is one of the companies that has benefited the most in recent times, yesterday it yielded up to 9%.

By sectors, health, real estate and basic resources are the ones that more have risen in this same period in Europe, although, of these three, only the last mentioned manages to remain positive so far in 2022.

Less optimism in the US

Crossing the pond and placing us on the other side of the Atlantic, the rises in the American stock markets eased on Wednesday after the start of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), where expectations were finally fulfilled and confirmed the 25 basis point hike and advanced that there will be another six increases throughout this year.

In this sense, the scourge of war is not felt so strongly in the S&P 500, which has already managed to recover from the conflict. The American thermometer has already managed to recover the levels it reached before the siege of Ukraine, and rrecords a bounce of 2%. And it is that, although last week Europe marked important rises, Wall Street stands as the refuge in these times of upheaval.