Telefónica will achieve a historic profit that is only ‘extraordinary’

The first meaning that the Royal Spanish Academy collects for the word “extraordinary” refers to something that “is outside the natural or common order or rule”, the second refers to something that “is added to the ordinary”. Well the benefits of Telefónica expected for this year fit perfectly with both entries.

The 10,158 million that the consensus of analysts foresees represent the highest profit in the history of the company, achieved in 2010 -see graph- after many years of crossing through the desert. It is also extraordinary because this figure it will be the second highest of the entire Ibex 35 this year (which could also reach its own historical benefit), second only to ArcelorMittal.

However, Telefónica will reach these numbers inorganically, thanks to the different operations it has carried out throughout the year. Among the large operations, Liberty in the United Kingdom, Telxius and some other minor ones in assets in Latin America stand out. “The biggest impact is the deconsolidation of the UK subsidiary that enters the group’s accounting from below, the sale of Telxius had a smaller size in Telefónica’s accounts,” says Juan Peña, an analyst at GVC Gaesco.

The company has been forced to implement this strategy with the goal of reducing your debt, which was one of the main drawbacks in the investment theses of analysts and investors. If we go back to 2011, a year after it achieved its highest earnings, it also weighed the highest net debt figure, which was 56,304 million euros, 2.8 times its ebitda. Since then, the liability has been lightening up to 34,750 million euros in which it will close next year, as expected by analysts, which equals 2.9 times ebitda provided. This is slightly better than Vodafone and Deutsche Telekom but worse than Orange.

Leads the hikes in the sector

After many years being penalized in an already mature sector that faces some endemic problems caused by strong competition, this course Telefónica is doing well on the stock market. Since the beginning of the year, their titles are scored about 25%, being the most bullish among the big telecos of the Old Continent. The last big rebound was this Monday, after the announcement of KKR’s offer for Telecom Italia (yesterday, however, it lost almost everything it gained after the withdrawal of the purchase council by Berenberg).

The consensus of analysts that Bloomberg collects grants him a potential of just over 13% up to 4.6 euros where you set your target price. You also receive a keep recommendation from the expert consensus compiled by FactSet.