Malaga: one point is not worth it

Malaga took a giant step in Tenerife pto get closer to salvation. A victory that, together with Sanse’s defeat against Almería, opens the distance from relegation to five points with six games to go. An optimistic and at the same time misleading horizon. The people of Malaga depend on themselves but cannot be trusted. Pablo Guede, after the success at the Heliodoro, did not take out the bottle of champagne: “Until you’re a mathematician, you can’t celebrate.” He has all the reason.

In the absence of two days this is the situation; Sporting and Malaga have 45 points; Amorebieta and Sanse add up to 40. Malaga has two games left against Burgos and Lugo. Two draws give him salvation. But only one point no. It can be a bunch of problems. However, if we see the glass as half full, Malaga can be saved even if they lose their two games as long as their two Basque opponents do not add three in one of their two pending duels.

We are going to analyze the most difficult of the scenarios, that is to say, that Málaga stays at 46. What would happen if the score coincides with Amore, Sporting and Sanse? The answer is clear: it goes to the hole.

We study a quadruple draw. To solve it, a league is made between the games played exclusively by them. The classification would be the following. Sanse would have 15 points (because they won their two games against Sporting and Amore and one against Malaga); Sporting eight points (four against Málaga and another four against Amorebieta); Málaga seven (six against Sanse and Amorebieta and one against Sporting) Amore would add four (three against Málaga and one against Sporting. In this case Málaga and Sanse would be relegated to the First RFEF.

Suppose that the triple draw of Malaga is with Donostiarras and zornotzarras (either because Sporting has been left with 45 or because it has added the necessary points. In this case the classification would be as follows: Sanse nine points (six against Amorebieta and three against Málaga), Málaga six points (three against Sanse and another three against Amore) and Amorebieta, all three against Malaga.

A triple tie with Sanse and Sporting is also not interesting. Nine points for Sanse, and four for Malaga and Asturians. Not another triple with Sporting and Amorebieta. It would be ten points for Sporting, four for Málaga and three for Amorebieta. In this case, Málaga should pray that Sanse did not have the famous 46 points.

In double draws, what is known as particular goal average, Malaga does not come out very favored either. He has it lost with Sporting and Sanse. With Amorebieta it is even (both won their match by 1.2). To break the tie, you would have to pull the general goal average by goal difference. Amorebieta has -15 and Malaga -19.

The curse of La Rosaleda

In the midst of these cumbersome accounts, Malaga has a formidable opportunity to resolve two issues: firstly, to ensure its permanence by defeating Burgos and secondly, ending one of the most horrible streaks in memory of six months without winning at La Rosaleda, from 11-20-2021 (2-1 to Las Palmas). In eleven games only five draws and six losses.