Hunt or escape in the derby

In his ten years as Atlético’s coach, Simeone has seen five different coaches on the Madrid bench. Two (Zidane and Ancelotti) have even repeated. So it has faced all possible versions of the neighbor, but hardly one as improved as the current one. Madrid come to the derby after nine consecutive victories and feeling capable of playing many things. He started the season exhibiting punch (13 goals in the first four games) and now he shows off his jaw (he hasn’t conceded a goal in the last three). And he has won both in the open field and on the counterattack, Ancelotti’s latest formula (follow today’s game live on As.com).

Atlético, who are defending the title, have been less consistent. Second top scorer in the championship, he has been unable to link more than two wins in a row so far this year, he has lost his proverbial defensive solidity, he has seen fewer miracles from Oblak and he has not felt driven by his stars. Six of Griezmann’s seven goals came in the last month and a half. Of the last five games, João Félix has been a substitute in four and did not even play in Porto. And Luis Suárez, who was injured in the Champions League, has gone five games without scoring. The crossing of streaks throws a devastating balance for the rojiblancos: they have seven points less than last year while Madrid added four more and surpassed them by 10 with a game of advantage. So today the hunt begins or is shot, who knows if in definitive terms, the escape.

Benzema, head of LaLiga

The grace of Madrid is that, on the fly, it has been able to change style without changing eleven. The magnificent ten will repeat today, with Benzema recovered, and the coin of Rodrygo and Asensio, both incomplete, will continue in the air: the Brazilian assists more and puts more effort in the withdrawal, the Balearic has scored three more goals. Bale has also overcome his 29th injury., but it is not an exit option.

Benzema is the most relevant player in the championship: 12 goals, seven assists, 53 shots, participation in 57% of Madrid’s goals. A machine gun. He is at the forefront of almost all the offensive success lists in the championship, but the team has had the ability to hide his absences: he missed against Elche and Inter and went to the quarter of an hour in Anoeta. Madrid won all three games and found Jovic, whom they thought was lost because, after all, the team always has Vinicius, who has not yet scored against Atlético. Yes, Benzema has done it 16 times, to whom the derby has gone. But as relevant as the Brazilian is the defensive quartet, far above expectations and far from the bad omens after the departure of Ramos and Varane.

Atlético hope to compensate for their disadvantage in the table with the European high, which has a double reading: they played really badly for an hour but did not spoil their spirits in the face of an adverse situation. Today he must correct the one and maintain the other. Simeone will be able to partially rebuild his defense with Felipe, absent in Do Dragao, but he does not recover neither Giménez nor Trippier and loses Vrsaljko. Luis Suárez, the team’s top scorer and author of seven goals against Madrid, arrives touched and will start on the bench. With a pleasant surprise in recent weeks, he points as a substitute, with Lemar and Correa as candidates for the free square in the center of the field. The rest of the team will be from Porto.

Negative streaks

Ancelotti has played 17 games against Atlético with three different clubs (Chelsea, Madrid and Bayern), but only four of the League. He did not win any: three defeats and a draw. The data reflects what was his first stage in Madrid: good sprint in short-distance tournaments and little depth in regularity. Now he wants to make amends. Simeone he was the redeemer of Atlético. He broke a streak of 14 years without beating Madrid and 17 without winning a national title with that Cup at the Bernabéu in front of the neighbor, but now chain seven games without victory over Madrid despite the fact that his team has finished in the table above in three of the last four championships. In the League, he has not surpassed him since February 2016. It was Zidane’s first derby and he ended 0-1 at the Bernabéu, a goal from Griezmann.

As the table shows, almost all the indicators point to a victory for Madrid. He has scored ten more goals, conceded one less, they have scored less than half as many from set pieces (9-4), he shoots three more times per game, has two more points of possession, suffers fewer losses, gives more passes and has more decisive players before the goal. A torrent of data that is usually dead paper in derbies. “They have to demand us because that provokes us and rebels us,” Simone said after the Porto clash. Well, the requirement is reminded of the table. Your options are hanging by a thread.