History saves Cádiz

Cádiz faces the last day of the League in a difficult position. The yellows fell into relegation places after the draw against Real Madrid, together with the victory in extremis of Mallorca with Rayo. Although the situation is not as expected as he does not depend on himself in the Silver Tacita believes in salvation and they will nevertheless go to their final of Medizorroza. The yellows have to win and wait for a setback from Mallorca or Granada. Sergio’s men could even be worth a draw, in the event that Granada or Mallorca did not add up in their respective games. A priori, the situation does not invite optimism.

Despite the fact that everything is against the yellows, recent history says that Cádiz will be saved on the last day. In the last eleven seasons (matchday 38) there have been seven occasions in which the third to last team was one point away or even on points with its predecessor (the same situation that Cádiz has with Mallorca and Granada). Well, in five of these seven seasons, the team that started in 18th place ended up being saved. In the 2010-11 season, Zaragoza was 18th, with 42 points. Ahead were numerous teams within a distance of two points or less. The Aragonese beat Levante on the last day, at home (1-2) and the one that fell to the relegation places was Deportivo, which was 17th before the day with 43 points, but went into relegation after losing to Valencia (0-2). A Valencia, which by the way, was not playing ‘nothing’, having secured the Champions League position.

One season later, day 38 brought us another crazy ending. This time it was Zaragoza (40 points) which began in decline and again, another battery of teams were in two points. The victory of the Aragonese against Racing (already relegated) by 2-1, put Villarreal in relegation (41 points), which fell to Atlético in El Madrigal (0-1). The curiosity is that Rayo, another team that did not enter the relegation places throughout the season, spent 33 minutes in Second, until the famous ‘Tamudazo’ arrived. To continue with the trend, the following year history repeated itself. In this case, the one that started out of relegation was Deportivo (35 points)but a defeat at Riazor against Real Sociedad (who was playing for the Champions League), by 0-1, sent them to the Second Division. Their main rival, Celta, started the day with 34 points, but their victory against Espanyol, who had nothing at stake, was worth a permanence.

To find each other the next case that favors Cádiz, we have to go back to the 2015-16 season. On this occasion, Rayo (35 points) and Sporting (36 points) were ranked 19th and 18th respectively. Both teams arrived with options to save themselves, since Getafe faced the last day with the same points as the Asturians, but with a better goal average. Getafe’s defeat against Sevilla (2-1) and Sporting’s victory against Villarreal (2-0), who had nothing at stake, ended with the relegation of the Madrid team. The last case that ‘smiles’ at Cádiz occurred last season. Elche (33 points) marked the decline. Huesca, with the same points, was out of it. The people from Elche beat Athetic (2-0) and came out of relegation to the detriment of the Alto Aragonese, who tied against all odds with a Valencia that ‘nothing’ was at stake.

The two cases in which the results that Cádiz would need did not occur occurred in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. Girona and Leganés, respectively, started in the situation of Cádiz, but both ended up relegating. The conclusions are clear: nothing has been decided as history dictates. If we translate the data into percentages, we find that 71.4% of the occasions in which they arrived in the same situation in which Cádiz arrived in the last eleven seasons, the team that occupied the 18th position on the last day he ended up being saved. Nothing should be taken for granted.