Guardiola against Zidane, the decisive game of strategy

At least for one day, the Champions League returns for Real Madrid. The exceptional nature of the moment, so far from the first leg of the Bernabéu, marks a game of difficult forecast against a Manchester City that months ago felt superior with full right to it. The alignments and tactical variants for which Guardiola and Zidane will bet are unknown, owners of multiple alternatives. How they will face the match each one is unknown, if there will be a more austere City or if Madrid will launch from the beginning with everything. Despite this certainly anomalous landscape, Yes, some determining factors emerge that will surely monopolize a notable incidence in the final development of the tie.

The value of consistency

The comeback obligation that hangs on Madrid must not distort the previous diagnosis. On the eve of the league title, where he ended up full, he indicated safety without the ball as the main virtue to hold on to. Against the City of Guardiola, without Ramos in the rear, he needs the maximum defensive criteria in all areas of the field to prevent his rival from submitting him. The internal balance will be decisive. The City gathers many footballers inside, at different heights, as it did at the Bernabéu with Bernardo Silva and De Bruyne so that they could receive between the lines behind the white midfielders. Madrid must set the Belgian above all else. If you act comfortable, if you receive relief (see image below), the damage is done. The Siege of Casemiro, the choice of interiors (Valverde, Modric or Kroos) on when to jump into the pressure and the anticipatory maneuvers of Varane and Militao cannot be wrong. In addition, De Bruyne is able to change positions with the extremes (Mahrez and Sterling) and confuse the Madrid vigilantes.

Covering the interior hallways and opening the door to the City from the outside is an option for Zidane. Arteta's Arsenal showed it just two weeks ago. The alternative, however, is not without danger because of Guardiola's tactical intelligence. The technician skyblue He already knew how to exploit Carvajal's weakness, strengthened after confinement, in the first leg. He pulled Gabriel Jesús from the end to match him with the white side, then increased his challenge with the entry of Sterling and the falls of De Bruyne to that side. If Carvajal is overcome on the individual level, Madrid will be very exposed. Also, the right back has suffered every time the winger internalized his position. It followed him and the hole behind him was generated, as can be seen in the image of Gabriel Jesus' goal. Zidane must be especially cautious with this type of movement and indicate whether Carvajal should leave his place after his pair or leave the interior to deal with a more zonal marking. In this equation, the role of Valverde's hedges seems fundamental, if he is the owner, to hold the right profile of the field against superlative talented footballers such as Sterling, De Bruyne, Silva … He is safer than Modric in this regard.

Unbalance from pressure after loss

They are two of the best teams in Europe in the offensive transition after a recovery. The individual quality and the previous collective work in the pressure induce to make mistakes to the rival in the circulation to jump to the attack with animosity once they steal. Madrid's goal in the first leg came in this way. The caution that both coaches will take remains to be seen. If they dare to propose almost always a high pressure block or they prefer to impose a medium block. Also if they will venture as usual in Guardiola for a long time or in Zidane recently to dispose the wings on the inside in the exit of the ball. In principle, it does not seem like a game for unnecessary risks, at least first, especially from the side of Guardiola, who already adopted a more cautious attitude in the February duel. Surely he will use Ederson's good foot again in the long displacement to cross the lines of Madrid and will rely on the joint presence of Rodrigo-Gündogan to protect themselves after loss. Close to each other, the City feels calmer.

Empty spaces

Manchester City's extraordinary condition in attack is less convincing in the defensive context. When he does not press up, something that will happen at various times due to the logical fear against Madrid, his vulnerability is perceived both inside and out. Benzema's supports behind the pivots will allow the white advance, always fine tuned the French striker at the first touch or the turn and side opening. Lacazette, playing as '10' in the recent FA Cup semi-final, denounced this fragility of City. This role can also be played by Isco, Modric or Hazard (if that's okay) to give continuity in the central lane and favor Benzema's outward appearances that cause so many doubts.

It is in the interval between lateral and central, preferably behind the former, where the City is most compromised. It happens to him both in positional attacks and in the opponent's counterattacks. Assaulting that space will serve Madrid to uncouple a team that does not turn too well towards its goal. If the whole skyblue defends many meters from Ederson, the difficulties are greater, although the advantage gives him the opportunity to be more cautious. Under this prism, Vinicius' acceleration and rebellion fit.

On the margins of the field, Carvajal and Mendy have to offer solutions and depth so that Madrid does not fall into predictability in positional attacks. Arrive at the right time to generate superiority. Mendy has an understanding with both Vinicius and Rodrygo and should do so with Hazard as well. Carvajal's physical regeneration also provides greater doses of optimism for Zidane on a flank in which Guardiola will have to improvise, a priori, with Cancelo. If Madrid are able to corner City in their field, the comeback they so badly want will not be impossible.