Goldman warns that omicron could erase almost half a point of world growth in 2022

Goldman Sachs economists already published several days ago the potential scenarios on the impact that the omicron variant could have on its growth prospects for the global economy.

In a subsequent report released this week, the bank notes that the effective rate of spread of omicron in South Africa appears much higher than that of the delta variant, suggesting increased inherent transmissibility and / or significant erosion of immunity.

According to the Goldman economists, the concentration of recent infections among the least vaccinated youth groups suggests that at least some vaccine-related immunity remains against infections. Most experts expect significant vaccine protection against hospitalization, especially if the booster dose is included.

“The medical evidence so far seem more consistent with our downside scenario -where the virus spreads rapidly, but immunity against hospitalizations decreases only slightly- than with the other three scenarios, “the document highlights.

That is why, in this downward scenario, Goldman Sachs expects the effects of omicron on world growth to erase 2.5 percentage points of annualized global growth in the first quarter next year and 0.4 percentage points in 2022 as a whole. There is no bad that does not come, as Golman’s economists now add an additional 0.3 percentage point to the outlook for 2023 as global growth recovers.

That said, from the bank led by David Solomon, they assure that there is still a lot of uncertainty, especially in relation to how quickly ómicron will spread around the world.

Goldman Sachs has already cut its prospects for economic growth for the US in 2022, pointing to the risks and uncertainty posed by the new strain. The entity now expects US gross domestic product (GDP) growth to expand 3.8% next year, below its previous annual estimate of 4.2%, and that growth from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022 is 2.9%, below the previously estimated 3.3%.

This Wednesday, Pfizer and BioNTech have indicated that a third booster dose of their Covid-19 vaccine protects against omicron. That said, the results are preliminary, and the full data has not yet been made available to other scientists for scrutiny.

A day earlier, a South African research institute, the epicenter of the new variant, also released laboratory results on the results of Pfizer’s vaccine against omicron, showing an approximately forty-fold reduction in antibodies induced by the vaccine that could neutralize the new variant. However, that study did not include the effect of booster doses.

Since last November 25, Pfizer and BioNTech have been working on developing a specific vaccine against the new strain. The first batches of this could be produced and ready for delivery in about 100 days, depending on the authorization of federal regulators. The US Federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is considering formulas to speed up this process.

It is expected that Moderna y Johnson & Johnson release lab results for the omicron variant in the coming days. Academic research institutions are also studying the efficacy of the omicron vaccine.