Espanyol have 99% direct promotion options

Espanyol tied on Monday in Almería, and the team left as upset as the fans who had followed the game from home. The point in The Mediterranean Games, coldly analyzed, seems invaluable. But the penalty missed by Raúl de Tomás, already at 1-1, fueled the impression of a lost chance. It is that voracity, that feeling of harassed team that needs to close the Second folder as soon as possible, which urgently pushes him to achieve the goal.

This is not reflected in the traditional faith of Espanyolism or the results, in a streak that lasts until 12 days without losing, essential to achieve leadership and ten points (plus the 'goal average') in which distance to the third, Almería, with only 21 to play. So do the forecasts. The Anglo-Saxon portal FiveThirtyEight, specialized in predictions from political to scientific through NBA, NFL or any football championship in the world, grants Espanyol more than 99 percent chance of direct promotion, that is, to finish LaLiga Smartbank in first or second position. Y in 92 percent of the cases, he would return to Primera as champion, in front of a Mallorca that, in turn, avoids promotion with 93 percent of probabilities.

They try so hard to fine-tune these predictions that they even mark the end points: 86 would add Espanyol (therefore, 15 would have to be added in the seven days that remain), by 80 from Mallorca and 73 from Almería which, therefore, would not see its current third position in jeopardy either. Leganés, Rayo Vallecano and Sporting de Gijón, in this order, would complete the promotion.

And they are not the only ones. The betting house Betfair take for sure the parakeet rise in 98.5 percent of the options, although it leaves the door more open to the final position: in 63.7 percent it is first and second, in 34.8 percent. Only in 1.15 of the remaining situations would he be left out of the top two and would be forced to contest the promotion. An extreme that Espanyol will try to deny from this Saturday, at the RCDE Stadium, against Las Palmas.