A reverse derby

A year ago, at this point, Madrid co-led LaLiga after 16 games and took nine points from an Atlético seventh. He ended up leading him by 17, a ton. Now, in ten games, the rojiblanco team scores six points from the neighbor and has one less encounter. A turn to the statistically explainable situation: Simeone's team attacks more and better and Zidane's team has not solved their problem with the goal and defends worse. So the table makes it clear that Madrid is playing more and that if it falls, the lions of Cibeles will lose track of Neptune's trident, who knows if definitely (follow the game live on As.com).

In Atlético's favor is the fatigue factor. Simeone was able to give rest a week ago, against Valladolid, to Koke, Llorente, Carrasco and João Félix, key pieces and headlines against Salzburg. Madrid, on the other hand, has been running out of plan B in the middle of the climb to the Himalayas. Just changed Zidane two footballers of the Kiev party to the Seville and only one, Ramos, from Pizjuán to the final against Borussia. In the last two games he only used fourteen players, one of them the Arribas subsidiary. Isco has played 13 minutes in the three games in December; Marcelo, none; Militao has been missing since October 31; Odriozola has 57 ’throughout the course despite the problems in his band; Jovic and Mariano are almost zero to the left… The imbalance is such that seven players already pass 1,000 minutes and eight do not even reach 500.

Few changes

The indications are that Atlético can repeat with the eleven that got them into the second round of the Champions League on Wednesday. Simeone tried to play with three centrals and two long full-backs against Cádiz and, seeing the success, he has then repeated it in five of the next six games. So will continue with the same drawing and perhaps with the same players. Only Lemar, for Carrasco, or Correa, for Suárez, have any chance. However, the Uruguayan is a psychological asset. He has scored eleven goals for Madrid in 16 games, nine of them in La Liga and his motivation tank is full.

Zidane will also play little. Carvajal is ready, but his replacement, Lucas Vázquez, gave a recital against Borussia. He could put both ahead of the Galician to seal the Carrasco gang and that would leave out Rodrygo or Vinicius. At the appointment, after two training sessions, Valverde, who is among those who count but does not seem likely to relieve Kroos or Modric, despite the beating they have been on (20 and 23 games since September, respectively).

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The man who balanced the derbies

The factor Simeone it has regained the lost balance of forces. Before his arrival, Atlético spent 22 derbies and 12 years without beating Madrid. With the Argentine, who has faced his eternal rival more than any other, the balance is 9 wins, 12 draws and 11 losses. And if it is true that he lost two Champions League finals and a Spanish Super Cup, it is also true that Madrid took a Cup, a European Super Cup and a national one. Upon arrival, the value of Madrid's squad was higher than his by 310 million. Now the difference has dwindled to 66.

In addition, he has turned that industrial style around, partly thanks to the revival of his wardrobe, and it is doing well. Atlético is the second highest-scoring team in the championship when last year it finished seventh while maintaining its solidity behind (two goals in the entire League), but its goals are also more elaborate: 39 seconds (more than anyone) and 13 passes by target.

The Oblak factor

Those records, last year were less than half. His possession has also gone up by five points. And Oblak is at maximum: for 94% of the shots that come to him. Remiro, de la Real, second, is at 84%, and Courtois, at 71%, despite the fact that he has been forced to make five decisive stops more than the Slovenian, data that reveals that Madrid concede more. Other data that explain the athletic takeoff is that João Félix adds eight goals when in the whole of last season he scored nine, that Marcos Llorente has gone from last in line to a nuclear footballer (he has played all this year when last, at this point, He had only started three times) and that Suárez has arrived with gunpowder (five goals already, despite injuries and coronavirus, the same that Diego Costa scored in 2019-2020).

Atlético has 26 games unbeaten in the League and it was precisely Madrid, with a goal from Benzema in February, who started the counter. In fact, that was the only goal in the last three derbies. A more recent Madrid faces that data: the bigger the game, the better it goes. He has won at Camp Nou and Pizjuán, twice against Inter, once against Borussia and drew away against Real Sociedad and Villarreal. This derby comes to him in an extreme situation, the Zidane territory.