Lazy start of the week in the main European exchanges, on a day without major references. Investors are waiting for the events that are coming in the coming days, both politically and business, and that is why they do not play their cards today. Consequently, the IBEX 35 it yields to measured falls, so it distances a little more from the psychological level of 9,600 points. Of course, the rally It has not ended in the equity of the Old Continent, but its final route is limited.
The different European indexes registered uneven results last week. Although despite being a few days marked by tensions between Iran and the United States, the selective reference, the EuroStoxx 50, managed to revalue about 1%.
On the other side of the puddle, Wall Street chained historical highs (which today can exceed again) and the accumulated increases in the week reached 2%.
Therefore, Western stock exchanges resist despite recent geopolitical shocks in the Middle East. Consequently, the rally Bullish in recent weeks is still in force. But he doesn't have much travel left.
In the case of EuroStoxx 50, which today is close to 3,800 points, it can take you up to 3,836-3,900 integers, which represents a potential of 2.5% in the short term.
This is what Joan Cabrero, Director of Strategy of Ecotrader, believes that the scope of these resistances would be “an opportunity to slightly reduce exposure to the stock market.” Why? “To have ammunition to be able to buy at an upcoming correction,” he anticipates.
However, there is nothing to worry about as long as the EuroStoxx 50 does not close a day below the “key support” it has in the 3,722-3,706 points, according to this expert.
“The black sheep”
For its part, the Ibex 35 “was unable last week to follow the good behavior presented by the rest of European references, which again turns the Spanish selective into the black sheep of the bags of the Old Continent,” says Cabrero.
“In the short term, it has been content to stay above the key supports it finds in the 9,468 points“, he adds. And how far can the Spanish index go? Up to” the area of significant resistance “that it has in 9,750-9,800 points, calculates the technical analyst.
This day falls below the psychological level of the 9,600 points that he already lost last week. Large values such as BBVA and Telefónica, with decreases of more than 1%, as well as Repsol and Santander, with more moderate declines, prevent the Ibex 35 from doing better today.
In fact, the 'teleco' returns to see its fifth position in the 'top 5' of the selective stock exchange (or capitalization) in danger since the technological Amadeus, which quotes in positive, returns to step on his heels.
However, Siemens Gamesa It shows as the 'red lantern'. CaixaBank, Cie e IAG, Iberia's parent company, are also among the worst values of the day. The airline group is again news today because its former CEO, Willie Walsh, who left the post last week, would have had a romantic relationship with a company employee, according to reports The times.
Meanwhile, Indra, Meliá Hotels, ArcelorMittal and Acerinox take the top of the table with purchases over 1%.
Outside Spain, the strong falls of Renault in the Paris Stock Exchange: the car's shares fall more than 2% and lead sales in the Cac 40 index after knowing that the Japanese Nissan intensifies its 'separation' plans. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has not opened today for holidays in Japan (Day of Respect for the Elderly), so we will have to wait until tomorrow to check the reaction of the latter's titles to the news.
'Macro' agenda
All in all, the European stock exchanges are shown on Monday “complacent” after weeks of “sharp increases”; also of new records on the New York Stock Exchange, as the Income Analysis Department 4 recalls in its daily report.
Investors are waiting for new references. They will not have this session, where only the 'macro' data published in United Kingdom, among which is November's gross domestic product (GDP): the British economy fell 0.3% that month.
The pound has reacted to this unexpected contraction: it gives ground slightly against the dollar and loses the psychological level of the 1.30 'greenbacks'. The euro, however, it turns slightly upwards at its crossing with the US currency, over $ 1.11.
The season of North American results begins …
Thus, the changes (if any) in the bags will be expected. But surely only until tomorrow, Tuesday, when the start of the fourth quarter results season in the United States will focus attention.
The North American investment bank will be responsible for kicking off: JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo they will account to the market. All three will do so before the opening of Wall Street (tomorrow).
Of course, so important will be the final figures of 2019 as the guides that these entities can give for the whole of this year, anticipate from Income 4.
… and China and the US sign the “phase one”
Also, the trade war Between the two largest economies in the world, China and the US, these days return to the center of the stage.
Today the Asian giant negotiating delegation travels to Washington, where on Wednesday, January 15, the 'first part' (or “phase one”) of the agreement with which both nations seek to end their mutual tariff attacks will be signed.
“This firm is something we consider totally discounted by the markets,” say the experts at Renta 4. Really, their only expectation is that it will give way to the talks for the second phase of the pact. Negotiations that are predictably much more complicated and that, however, according to US President Donald Trump, will end before the presidential elections (that is, before November).
What else to expect of the week?
The trade balance of China will be known just one day before the rubric and on Friday, day 17, its GDP.
Other references that will be known next week will be Germany's GDP, the largest economy in the Eurozone, at the end of 2019; inflation in the United Kingdom and France; and industrial production throughout the euro zone.
The risk premium, stable
Finally, with regard to the fixed income market, it should be noted that the Spanish debt remains stable in the face of the formation of the new Coalition Government of PSOE and Unidos Podemos, chaired by Pedro Sánchez.
The risk premium, which measures the differential with the sovereign debt of Germany (taken as a reference for being the most solvent), remains one day below 70 basis points.
The ten-year Germanic bond (bund) slightly increases its profitability to -0.17% in the secondary and Spanish markets, to 0.46%.
To buy again, you have to wait for the bumps of the year