Rafa Nadal's defeat in the Australian Open quarter-finals against Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas jeopardizes his status as number two in tennis. The man who can unseat that place is Russian Daniil Medvedev, precisely Tsitsipas' next opponent in the semifinals.
Medvedev reached the round of 16 last year, when he was felled by Stan Wawrinka of Switzerland. So it is already adding in this edition. Specifically 540 points, the difference between the 180 that he won for those eighths and the 720 that the male semifinalists get. In total, he would already accumulate 9,255, to 595 of the 9,850 that Nadal has.
Taking into account that the Spaniard stayed in the quarterfinals in 2020, the same result as in 2021, he will not add a single point to his account. That is why if Medvedev manages to lift the title, which would be the first in a Grand Slam of his career (he was already a finalist in the US Open in 2019) and awards 2,000 points, he would go up to 10,535 and would easily surpass Rafa.
The one who will not be able to overtake, at least for now, is the Serbian Novak Djokovic. Nole, with 12,030 points, is also in the semifinals and can lose a maximum of 1,280 in the case of not reaching the final. That reduction would not be enough to fall below Medvedev, but it would tighten the pulse for the rest of the season.