The withdrawal of Rafael Nadal from the National Bank Open in Toronto was significant for a number of reasons. Not only does the Spaniard’s foot injury cast doubt on his condition ahead of the U.S. Open, but it also marks another key moment in what many see as a changing of the guard in men’s tennis.
In March this year, all of the Big Three – Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer – skipped the ATP Miami Open. Nadal cited his wish to recover ahead of the clay court season; Djokovic put it down to a desire to spend more time with his family during what has been a difficult time for world-touring sports stars stuck in various levels of COVID restrictions over the last 18 months; Federer needed extra time to get fit again following a knee injury.
Astonishingly, the Miami Open was the first Masters level event since the 2004 Paris Masters not to feature any of Nadal, Djokovic, or Federer. Their absence from proceedings in Toronto means that the gap between the first and the second ‘Big Three-less’ Masters events since 2004 was only five months.
35-year-old Nadal has now also dropped out of the top three of the world rankings following the most recent update, leaving Djokovic as the Big Three’s only remaining representative on the global tennis podium. It’s been an extraordinary decade and a half in men’s tennis and it is unlikely that tennis – or any sport for that matter – will experience such a period of utter domination by not one, but three generational talents at the same time. However, the decline of these greats creates chances for others.
One of those who will be fancying his chances of breaking into the top three of the rankings in the not-too-distant future is Denis Shapovalov. The 22-year-old Canadian suffered a surprise defeat in the National Bank Open to Frances Tiafoe this week – hardly ideal preparation for the U.S. Open. However, the home favourite’s big-hitting game was to some extent hampered by the windy conditions in Toronto and this performance should be seen as an anomaly rather than reflective of his current form.
That recent form has seen Shapovalov climb back into the top 10 of the world rankings this summer, having reached these heights once before in September 2020. In 2021 he has reached a final on clay at the 2021 Geneva Open, equalled a career-best in reaching the third round of the Australian Open (where he ultimately lost to compatriot Félix Auger-Aliassime), and charged to his maiden Grand Slam semi-final on the grass at Wimbledon.
That performance at Wimbledon was one of the standout stories in the men’s draw. Shapovalov bested eight-time ATP Tour singles title-winner Philipp Kohlschreiber, three-time Grand Slam winner (and two-time Wimbledon champion) Andy Murray, and eighth-seed Roberto Bautista Agut on his way to the semi-final. There was absolutely no shame in his eventual straight-sets defeat in the semi-final to the imperious Serbian Djokovic, who at that point had only dropped one set in the entire tournament and went on to tie Federer and Nadal for 20 Grand Slam titles with victory in the final.
It is intriguing that Shapovalov has shown in the last 12 months alone that he has the quality and consistency to compete with the best across all surfaces, and the recent hiccup in Toronto will do nothing to weaken that conviction. Bookies are taking note, too, with some already pricing up Shapovalov career Grand Slam titles (check out this Bet365 review, for example, to see how you can claim up to $200 in bet credits if you back Shapovalov in this market).
Even more exciting for fans of the Israel-born left-hander is that he is the youngest player in the current top ten men’s rankings. At 22, Shapovalov has three years on Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini (ranked 2nd and 8th respectively), two years on Alexander Zverev (ranked 5th), and five years on sixth-ranked Dominic Thiem. That this group of players has just one Grand Slam win between them so far only goes to emphasise the astonishing level at which the Big Three have been at for so long – especially considering Federer, Djokovic and Nadal all had at least one Grand Slam under their belt by the age of 21.
For Shapovalov, the players to try to target and emulate in the near future will be the likes of Greek star Stefanos Tsitsipas, whose consistency across all surfaces has earned him third spot in the rankings aged just 23. Yet even Tsitsipas is yet to taste Grand Slam glory: The Big Three truly are leaving the door wide open for promising youngsters like Shapovalov.