During the months of strict confinement in 2020, the televisions suffered the contradiction of seeing a skyrocketing consumption in the face of an advertising market plummeting and that could not be profitable. As a consequence, Atresmedia and Mediaset, two of the juiciest payments on the national market, had to suspend their dividends.

A little over a year later, the gradual return to normality and the recovery of advertising have led to the holding company that owns Antena 3 to be the first in the sector to announce that it is resuming shareholder remuneration.

Maintaining the tradition of paying the Christmas bonus at the end of the year, Atresmedia will distribute 0.18 euros per share on 16 December (compared to the 0.16 euros estimated by Bloomberg), as reported by the company on Thursday to the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV). The cut-off date to access this charge will be December 13. Check here the calendar of the next dividends of the Spanish stock market.

As for the second payment, of 0.22 euros per share according to the forecasts included in the consensus, it will be distributed on June 14, 2022. In total, 0.40 euros per share charged to 2021.

At current prices, this dividend yields 10.76%, which directly catapults Atresmedia to the leadership of the dividend yield of the Spanish stock market in 2021, followed by Metrovacesa and Enagás, with yields of 8.63% and 8.49% , respectively.

A podium in which changes are not expected for 2022, when the dividend yield of the media is expected to reach 11.74%, while that of the real estate developer led by Jorge Pérez de Leza will increase to a 10.67% and that of the utility an 8.56%.

A discounted news?

Although the announced payment is slightly above what the consensus estimated, after communicating the news, Atresmedia’s share rose by 0.6% to finally close the session with a decline of 0.11% to 3.57 euros. For the year as a whole, the company recorded gains of 24% on the stock market and it has been months since it erased the losses caused by Covid-19 in its listing in March last year.

The group already hinted at the possibility of recovering the dividend after the presentation of results corresponding to the first nine months of the year, a period in which the firm pocketed close to 80 million euros, and which means doubling the net profit it recorded in the same period of 2020 and equals the profits of the year before the pandemic thanks, especially, to the recovery of advertising.

Without going any further, the group’s advertising turnover shot up 15% in the audiovisual market, to 623.6 million euros. In radio, the company increased its sales by 8.3%, to 48.3 million.

Analysts rule out that Atresmedia will recover the net result prior to the pandemic before 2023

“The company confirmed its plan to bring back the dividend for 2021, in line with what the market expected, which also foresees a payout 80% “, as usual, they point out from the Barclays analysis team.

All in all, analysts rule out that Atresmedia will recover the net result prior to the pandemic before 2023 (the maximum year where the forecasts are taken into account). Yes, the revenues will do so, which this year is expected to close to 962 million euros, and in 2022 they will exceed 995 million. This is 1.1% above 2019.

A potential of 23%

Proof that the recovery of the dividend at the end of this year was, in part, discounted, is that analysts have not issued changes in the valuation they issue on the titles of the media. Atresmedia receives from FacStet an advice to maintain and margin to advance about 24% more. However, the most optimistic house is JP Morgan, which sees it trading at 6.80 euros for the next 12 months, which provides an upside potential of 89%.

The US bank’s experts argue that the recovery of advertising, the hidden value of the title, the distribution of online and infrastructure assets and the long-term appreciation improvements are sufficient arguments against low expectations. “Broadcast networks embrace technology to transform user experience and monetization through targeted advertising, commercial advertising, and subscriptions to on-demand content services,” the analysts say.

Berenberg: “Third-quarter advertising revenue was practically flat for both Atresmedia and Mediaset, in contrast to strong growth for their French, German and British counterparts.”

On the other hand, Berenberg warns that the first signs of disruption in the supply chain will affect the sector. “It is not surprising that the Spanish television market in the third quarter was affected by the weakness of the automotive sector. Third quarter advertising revenues remained practically flat for both Atresmedia and Mediaset, in contrast to the strong growth of their French, German and British counterparts. ”

The firm trades at a ratio of 7.4 times its 2022 earnings, Atresmedia shows a discount of 8.6% compared to Telecinco’s parent company.

Mediaset still does not offer visibility

Another of the more traditional payments is that of Telecinco’s parent company, but this, unlike Atresmedia, still does not give any indication of what will happen to the dividend that the group froze in June 2020. The latest results did not offer any news in this regard either. So, except for surprise, the next payment will not be paid until April 2022, following the path outlined before 2019 of a single annual payment. Mediaset has not paid its shareholders for two years, due to the pandemic, since the last payment was paid for the 2018 financial year, when it distributed 0.306 euros. Now, Bloomberg It foresees that in April of next year it will distribute 0.31 gross euros per share, which will yield 5.4%.

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